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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1270

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 24, 2022 00:15:26
    ACUS11 KWNS 240015
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240015=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-240245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0715 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

    Areas affected...ast-central South Dakota...Central and Northern
    Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 240015Z - 240245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across parts of
    east-central South Dakota southward into central Nebraska. Wind
    damage and hail would be the primary threats. The severe potential
    appears marginal and weather watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave
    trough in the western Dakotas. At the surface, a 1004 mb low is
    analyzed over central South Dakota, with a moist airmass is in place
    to the east and north of the low. Isolated convection is ongoing to
    the north of the low east of Mobridge. Surface dewpoints are
    generally in the mid 60s F along the instability axis, where the RAP
    has MLCAPE in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. This combined with
    large-scale ascent associated with the subtle shortwave trough will
    support continued isolated thunderstorm development this evening. A
    storm or two could also develop along a dryline southward into
    north-central Nebraska. RAP forecast soundings from central South
    Dakota into north-central Nebraska have 0-6 km shear around 35
    knots. Low to mid-level lapse rates are generally in the 7.5 to 8.0
    C/km range. This could be enough for marginally severe wind gusts
    and hail.

    ..Broyles/Edwards.. 06/24/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!74pXwVYcTb3o1mj2YD4Yx3yg9xyuQSm0RT6xcoTwdZLkzUx9Dt7YCYLfUWLzVBapZ9JGH76Tv= mEinHlv6o3CvEUvMDw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 45780014 45939959 45959902 45859852 45539817 45149821
    44509854 43889878 43049879 42359898 41779957 41380017
    41280050 41360093 41550119 41810122 42170108 42630088
    43470068 44240063 44870062 45280053 45550038 45780014=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 26, 2023 01:18:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 260118
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 260117=20
    TNZ000-KYZ000-260315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1270
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0817 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

    Areas affected...Central and eastern Kentucky...middle and eastern
    Tennessee

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 379...

    Valid 260117Z - 260315Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 379 continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms over northern Kentucky will
    move southeast through the remainder of this evening with a
    continued risk for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado
    or two. A downstream watch is likely prior to 03z.

    DISCUSSION...Strong/severe thunderstorms continue along the Ohio
    River across northern Kentucky and extreme southern Indiana at
    0110z. These storms have produced scattered reports of large hail
    over the past hour. Latest mesoanalysis shows gradually increasing
    CINH across eastern portions of Kentucky/Tennessee in the wake of
    earlier storms/convective outflow, with the greatest instability
    (MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg) across south-central Kentucky and
    middle Tennessee. As storms continue to develop and evolve into
    clusters/short line segments, the risk for damaging winds, hail and
    perhaps a tornado or two will likely increase to the southeast and
    south of ongoing storms. Despite the increasing inhibition, some
    severe potential may exist over eastern Kentucky/Tennessee this
    evening, with greater potential across south-central Kentucky south
    into middle Tennessee.

    Trends are being monitored for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch prior to
    03z.

    ..Bunting/Guyer.. 06/26/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-_JWL4bwtbcazynbwjdeWtdk5-Gzw8o-DIi5bver-VLNLeXA7gkovbf03OAeS5c8xUNixLJCs= GbwVQAGKKL99Tgf9q8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

    LAT...LON 37618653 38368535 38348470 38248425 37838392 37358388
    36708387 35568473 35388563 35888690 36788734 37618653=20


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