ACUS11 KWNS 232216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232216=20
MTZ000-240015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of central into eastern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232216Z - 240015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may accompany the stronger
storm cores into the evening hours. A WW issuance is unlikely given
the sparse nature of the severe threat.

DISCUSSION...High-based thunderstorms continue to gradually increase
in coverage and intensity with the onset of peak afternoon heating.
These relatively dry thunderstorms are developing atop a deep, dry
boundary layer extending up to 600-500 mb per latest RAP forecast
soundings. Given the state of this boundary layer, skinny CAPE is
constrained above 600 mb. 40+ kts of effective bulk shear and
relatively long, slightly curved hodographs will support small,
splitting supercell structures through the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening hours. A couple of damaging gusts may
accompany the stronger storm cores given ample potential for
evaporative cooling and hail/graupel melting in the dry boundary
layer with steep low-level lapse rates. However, the severe threat
is expected to be quite isolated and brief, with no WW issuance
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Edwards.. 06/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rP115OZNerJAxdEqvIa9WS-23ogCumM9qDsMCiaB7VBzCf59yP8f-0ot6XmqxIVcLkjBlm1M= 5mBdn_xxPi9Qf-vyME$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

LAT...LON 46671061 47880953 48610876 48940762 49090539 49040475
47790569 46170768 45650914 45651007 45941064 46671061=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 260028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260028=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-260130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...central Alabama Georgia border

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384...

Valid 260028Z - 260130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 384
continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for damaging winds will continue this evening as
storms track south/southeastward.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of south-central AL and GA, the loosely
organized MCS has continued to produce strong and damaging wind
gusts as it moved south/southeastward. Despite some weakening of the
eastern half of the cluster as its moved into more stable air, a
well-developed cold pool will continue to support the potential for
damaging wind gusts. New development has been noted on the western
half of the line where stronger buoyancy will continue to support
preferential development/propagation tonight. Convective trends will
be monitored for potential downstream weather watch issuance later
this evening should storms maintain intensity.

..Lyons.. 06/26/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!80aHj3RFqEJBgzhUqiS1ellEPdJeOofOJAJO1fuulYKr9lQF4xJD-iTu2SO1laz4IuNFN38Gu= 7yFaxZr9hrGDlpHW2g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 33428635 33268543 33198472 33228385 33278316 33148287
32648292 32378307 32118327 31618482 31558510 31448556
31488599 31528637 31648658 32008662 32658657 33428635=20


=3D =3D =3D
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