ACUS11 KWNS 231857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231857=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-232130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1265
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022
Areas affected...Parts of north-central KS and south-central NE
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 231857Z - 232130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered severe storms capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two will increase
between 20-23Z across parts of KS and NE. Watch issuance will be
likely this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier elevated convection over
north-central KS into southern NE, cloud clearing is allowing for boundary-layer heating/mixing amid upper 60s dewpoints. As a subtle
midlevel impulse evident in water vapor imagery tracks eastward
across parts of the area in conjunction with a deepening lee trough
over the central High Plains, isolated high-based thunderstorm
development may occur over parts of western KS/NE and track eastward
into the increasingly moist/unstable airmass in the 20-23Z time
frame. While less uncertain, additional convective development will
be possible farther east in north-central KS into south-central NE
-- where steep low-level lapse rates are developing along the
western periphery of the recovering cold pool.=20
Current thinking is that a modest increase in midlevel
west-southwesterly flow accompanying the subtle cyclonic impulse
will result in 35-45 kt of effective bulk shear, which combined with
the aforementioned destabilization should support organized
convection including supercells. This activity should generally be
focused from the eastern periphery of steep low-level lapse rates
over northwest KS/southwest NE eastward along and north of a weak
warm front lifting northward in central KS. Given modest midlevel
lapse rates and an elongating mid/upper-level hodograph, large to
very large hail will be possible with any semi-discrete supercell
structures along with locally severe gusts. In addition, a gradual
increase in the easterly low-level flow component amid a somewhat
sheltered boundary layer is expected as the lee trough deepens. This
would yield favorable clockwise-turning low-level hodographs
supportive of a tornado or two with any longer-lived surface-based
supercells. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this
afternoon.
..Weinman/Grams.. 06/23/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ZrCf1Rouuyrisb_SmsrpRAhuxwO3wH9H1Mb5_ORxBjkJcdf8ZcA059AdI9UPelU7EnMc5sx4= 2tsb9oRkTVzKu_i_UE$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39230047 39720077 40520079 40910055 40969924 40519812
39919735 39809675 39249648 38529697 38909948 39230047=20
=3D =3D =3D
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