ACUS11 KWNS 231844
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231843=20
UTZ000-NVZ000-232015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CDT Thu Jun 23 2022

Areas affected...portions of eastern Nevada and western Utah.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 231843Z - 232015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this
afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have started to develop across central
and eastern Nevada where temperatures have warmed into the 80s and
SPC mesoanalysis shows 250 J/kg MLCAPE. Some additional heating, in
addition to cooling temperatures aloft, should lead to additional destabilization with MLCAPE around 400 to 600 J/kg this
afternoon/evening. Effective shear around 25 to 30 knots should
support multicell clusters or occasional rotating updrafts. The
primary threat will be damaging winds due to the inverted-v
thermodynamic profile and propensity for evaporatively cooled
downdraft acceleration. This threat is expected to continue into the
evening before waning after sunset. A watch is unlikely due to the
isolated nature of the threat in a weakly unstable environment.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/23/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5zdysGFiPneqXIzKRdR5Utv-_GwqavtLq6xPmHGYRMqH2viZtGydTFZST-wA5-rshmEjJ6r49= ntKcL5yRuerz6crPEo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...VEF...LKN...

LAT...LON 37371431 37291577 37821651 39041728 40121695 41371550
41461416 40891337 40321304 39581319 37871380 37371431=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 252147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252147=20
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-252345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1264
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2023

Areas affected...North-central Kentucky...southern
Indiana...southwest Ohio

Concerning...Tornado Watch 374...379...381...

Valid 252147Z - 252345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374, 379, 381 continues.

SUMMARY...Tornado risk will likely increase over the next few hours
with supercells moving east across portions of Tornado Watches 374,
379, and 381.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite at 2140z shows several
discrete supercells from extreme northwest KY northeast into
southern Indiana, with a history of very large hail. Over the next
2 to 4 hours, the mesoscale environment will likely become more
conducive for tornado development as low-level winds strengthen in
association with an upper-level low over Lake Michigan. The
environment remains moderately to strongly unstable and with ample
deep-layer shear to support continued supercell structures.=20
RAP-based STP values of 6 to locally 8 are forecast in the 23z-02z
time frame across much of the discussion area, supporting an
increased tornado risk for supercells remaining discrete while
moving east-southeast. Given this favorable environment, a strong
tornado will be possible.

..Bunting.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!88yYALjVd2u4pmjRwEGJ1Uy_jb8AZ6zfUphZhzJFRnDSr20CSaP73HbhAMkWuI8DoyAqkwmgN= Eui_YrpqS2pXzXk4_U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON 38798661 39158592 39318514 39208438 38888402 38318404
37918431 37558465 37428490 37208537 37278678 37938728
38408703 38798661=20


=3D =3D =3D
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