ACUS11 KWNS 221657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221657=20
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-221830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1157 AM CDT Wed Jun 22 2022

Areas affected...South-central Virginia into central Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221657Z - 221830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat will gradually increase through
the afternoon across Virginia and Maryland.

DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have developed out of a scattered
ACCAS deck which extends from central Pennsylvania into northern
Virginia. The airmass is warming/moistening with greater instability
developing from northwest to southeast. This destabilization may
occur far enough ahead of the ongoing activity to support at least a
severe threat from these storms as they move south across central
Virginia.

Additional storms are expected in the wake of this activity as the
atmosphere becomes uncapped and numerous storms develop in the
vicinity of the back door cold front and also from terrain driven
circulations. Additional storms which develop along the cold front
in Ohio/Pennsylvania are also expected to move into this area later
this evening. Therefore, multiple rounds of storms are likely which
justifies the need for a severe thunderstorm watch.

Effective shear of 35 knots from the LWX VWP and 25 knots from the
CCX VWP suggest some storm organization is possible. Multicell
clusters are the most likely storm mode with a primary threat for
damaging wind gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
issued once more robust updraft development is occurring or appears
imminent.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/22/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9X7FpYPChuerdM7Kr_Qq3cZDHQpESIrhd7f0kxjuMQ9V1X863yCWEeeUnR5YfA4-lj84tVoCn= nVhYSH-LxFcPgadAJc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 39197877 39657771 39667692 39427660 37267752 36607781
36577872 36637975 36668024 37458000 37847972 39197877=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 250237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250237=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-250400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0937 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...north central Iowa and southern Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 250237Z - 250400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...New convective development ahead of the ejecting shortwave
may continue to intensify tonight. Isolated hail and damaging winds
are possible. While uncertain, there is potential a weather watch
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of the upper Midwest, evening WV
imagery showed a compact upper low ejecting eastward into portions
of northern IA and southern MN. Ahead of the upper low, broad scale
ascent from mid-level height falls and DPVA has increased, resulting
in new storm development over the past hour. Despite the loss of
diurnal heating, area RAP soundings remain moderately unstable with
steepening mid-level lapse rates from cold advection aloft.
Deep-layer shear remains favorable for supercells with area VADs
showing 45-50 kt of effective shear atop the moderate MUCAPE. There
appears to be a few hour window for storms to mature and pose a risk
for isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts across portions of
northern IA and southern MN tonight. Confidence in storm and severe
coverage, especially the eastward extent in the wake of previous
outflow, is not overly high. However, recent HRRR runs do show some intensification of ongoing storms is possible. Given the potential
for large hail and damaging winds, conditions are being monitored
for possible Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/25/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_Gj0F4RRxXU9FUHZrFVAMLl71-KBETQMdXIfCamx64zycsLMMp5D3uHAdqqlwmXhbOMGfKUcz= frMktGfxK-p5sjB80U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 42189542 42219561 42329593 42619624 43169636 43899577
44789476 44999391 44859348 44319298 43709268 43109263
42769272 42369283 42219320 42199323 42189542=20


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