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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1244

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 21, 2022 04:23:12
    ACUS11 KWNS 210423
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210422=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-210615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1122 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...parts of eastern South Dakota into the western Lake
    Superior vicinity

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395...396...398...

    Valid 210422Z - 210615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 395, 396,
    398 continues.

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity, occasionally posing a risk for
    strong to severe wind gusts, probably will continue into the the 1-3
    AM CDT time frame, mostly west and north of the Greater Minneapolis
    area.

    DISCUSSION...Increasingly widespread convective outflow from
    post-frontal convection appears to be enhancing the slow moving
    surface front, which appears in the process of becoming the primary
    focus for strong thunderstorm development for the next few hours.=20
    Low-level inflow into convection may increasingly be emanating from
    a boundary layer impacted at least somewhat by prior convection, and
    otherwise gradually cooling with the loss of insolation. However,
    as stronger convection increasingly aligns with a belt of 40-50 kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer,
    heavy precipitation loading may continue to contribute to downward
    mixing of higher momentum to the surface.

    ..Kerr.. 06/21/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9WwrDPXCJLJVvMIZ7ch-_W4CKxkb_-WrmZbiDq_xW96QYA54OZ10SNftTR3f1oe25HU2OlQ4s= V9pG8TwP7Q0_HKVVWs$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44209736 45689645 46179490 46869289 47019202 45639226
    44069664 44209736=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 20:50:49
    ACUS11 KWNS 242050
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 242050=20
    MNZ000-WIZ000-242245-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1244
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0350 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern/eastern MN and extreme western
    WI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 242050Z - 242245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist this afternoon.
    Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell has recently developed across south-central
    MN, in a modest low-level warm advection regime in advance of an
    ejecting upper trough/low over the northern Plains. This
    thunderstorm has had a recent report of a funnel cloud. The eastern
    extent of any appreciable severe threat across southeastern MN will
    likely be constrained by a less unstable airmass into western WI.
    Even so, some threat for severe thunderstorms will probably persist
    this afternoon across parts of southern into eastern MN, as a weakly
    unstable airmass and 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear support some
    updraft rotation. Uncertainty regarding the overall magnitude of the
    severe threat remains high, but isolated large hail and damaging
    winds may occur with the more intense convection, especially if they
    can maintain supercellular structure. The tornado threat appears a
    bit lower due to marginal low-level shear. But, there may still be
    enough 0-1 km SRH to support a brief tornado. Observational trends
    will be closely monitored for possible watch issuance over the next
    couple of hours.

    ..Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6YlgJEKlMybWXrmQOVcPe8L0KtgEKr3a3YOcBpTpjEkQI_RYEIhmSubgS-p7t1cq5rE2BS1qI= qGuP9lFPuSJVgl-UY4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 43879430 45029375 45269313 44929251 44469254 43679289
    43549367 43649419 43879430=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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