ACUS11 KWNS 210021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210020=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-210115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

Areas affected...parts of northern Nebraska and adjacent southern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393...

Valid 210020Z - 210115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 393
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated supercell may be slow to weaken this evening,
and could continue to pose a severe hail and wind risk into the
10-11 PM CDT time frame. A new severe weather watch will be issued
shortly, replacing WW 393.

DISCUSSION...A localized area of stronger forcing for ascent just to
the north of the slow moving cold front has been sufficient to
maintain an isolated supercell now passing to the southwest and
south of Valentine. With 20-25 kt east-northeasterly inflow
continuing to emanate from a moist post-frontal environment
characterized by CAPE up to 2000+ J/kg, it appears that this cell
could maintain vigorous strength and pose a continuing severe hail
and wind threat at least another few hours.

..Kerr.. 06/21/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7_XeapgHh2r6h3Gy2D25RR2RywNYKh8Y5FIV8uslwVIxkfj7DvN1yYWgiAl_PY07m8Ub3qvDt= 3YChjfnIXWaZzIpcv0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON 42730107 43009967 43289877 42819814 42509986 42040127
42730107=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 241941
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241940=20
LAZ000-MSZ000-242215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Sat Jun 24 2023

Areas affected...Portions of central/southern LA and southwestern MS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 241940Z - 242215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and damaging winds may
exist this afternoon. But, watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
across parts of eastern/southeastern LA and southwestern MS
along/near an instability gradient. Modest southerly flow veers to
northerly and strengthens some with height at mid levels per recent
VWPs from KLIX/KDGX. Around 20-30 kt of related deep-layer shear may
be sufficient for a mix of loosely organized clusters and pulse
thunderstorms through the rest of the afternoon. Given the very
moist low-level airmass and steepened low-level lapse rates where
robust heating has occurred, wet microbursts may be capable of
producing isolated damaging winds. Occasional severe hail may also
occur with the strongest updrafts. Still, given the limited
low-level and deep-layer shear, watch issuance is not expected.

..Gleason/Grams.. 06/24/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9vn2YNw0NdYiN8Jwb7XfdGvYS_M6TmFD4siZwZcCq1qt4gGUZLXDOSomQYkK_c3dRJoUC0gmV= EdFPvVp2RJJy8thssk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 31959184 31839069 30998972 30168962 29638978 29169080
29339166 29609234 30069267 30559277 31569264 31959184=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)