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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1235

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Monday, June 20, 2022 20:37:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 202036
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202035=20
    NEZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1235
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0335 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of central Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 202035Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for isolated severe potential
    this afternoon. The main concerns would be sporadic large hail and
    locally strong gusts. Trends are being monitored, though watch
    issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated convective development is ongoing across parts
    of central Nebraska near Broken Bow -- south of a quasi-stationary
    surface boundary draped across northern Nebraska. While this area is
    somewhat removed from the large-scale forcing for ascent
    (characterized by neutral midlevel height tendencies), continued
    diurnal heating and increasing boundary-layer moisture beneath steep
    midlevel lapse rates to the east/northeast of this activity could
    allow for some intensification during the next couple hours. While
    deep-layer shear remains modest (25-30 kt of effective shear),
    veering in the lowest 3 km could support a few loosely organized
    updrafts capable of isolated large hail and locally strong gusts.
    Given the anticipated localized/brief nature of the threat, watch
    issuance is not expected.

    ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/20/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6W4n1ap_nOQkdykeb6x7KCZQGqieOEoZe2xqLnUk8RkuAHeoktimmtCyiT4Z_3xBYkDMIEpXT= Tt0KVGzI78WX0SECC0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...

    LAT...LON 40800001 41330014 41830000 42149944 42459869 42459811
    42149760 41689732 40959773 40479880 40509966 40800001=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 04:18:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 240418
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240418=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-240615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1235
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1118 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...parts of central and eastern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...

    Valid 240418Z - 240615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated severe potential ongoing across WW 366 should
    become a bit more widespread, as an organized band of storms
    crossing western South Dakota moves eastward/into WW 366.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a west-to-east band of
    strong/locally severe storms moving northward across central South Dakota/western portions of WW 366. Hail and locally damaging winds
    remain possible with the strongest cells.

    Meanwhile, a more organized/bowing band of storms is evolving across
    western South Dakota, and is moving rather quickly eastward. This
    band will impinge on northwestern portions of WW 366 over the next
    hour, with some increase in damaging wind risk expected.=20=20

    Finally, storms moving northward across north-central/northeastern
    Nebraska will move into southern portions of WW 366, accompanied by
    local hail/wind risk. Overall, severe-weather potential will likely
    persist across the watch over the next several hours, given the
    amply unstable airmass in place and persistent low-level warm
    advection.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8rp9VDSUVhq6qXWof3sxq39sfJBVJ2D5JptLWIiXPDzDJ57MzWMzLOY-o122WagMOE7eQSJZh= 7TZBM1OtnkRZYS8MHM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 44840134 45100074 45159934 44749773 43539721 43009842
    42939996 43660105 44840134=20


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