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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1227

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 19, 2022 22:31:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 192231
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192231=20
    SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-200000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0531 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

    Areas affected...Northwest Nebraska into central South Dakota and
    south-central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 192231Z - 200000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong/damaging wind gusts are possible with
    convection developing within the surface trough. A watch is not
    expected this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing within the surface trough
    in the Nebraska Panhandle into central South Dakota. Weak
    confluence, modestly increasing 850 mb warm advection this evening,
    and subtle influence from the trough to the west should aid in this
    activity persisting through the afternoon and perhaps early evening.
    VWP data from KABR and KLNX show around 30-35 kts of flow in the
    lowest few kilometers. Strong heating, steep mid-level lapse rates,
    and dewpoints in the low/mid 60s F in central South Dakota have
    supported 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Though effective shear will
    increase as the trough moves east, values will not likely be higher
    than 30-40 kts. Loosely organized multicell storms are the likely
    mode. A few potent updrafts may develop and be capable of strong
    downdraft wind gusts given the around 30 F boundary-layer dewpoint
    depressions (a mesonet site in Jackson County, SD recently gusted to
    54 mph). Isolated large hail would be possible with the strongest
    storms that develop. With the overall lack of storm/cold-pool
    organization expected, no watch is anticipated this afternoon.

    ..Wendt/Guyer.. 06/19/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-iIzJbJ462dIL_SN4kHcQzj9cpeP3bLLTW0SS30WItaT31FLn5EhgkqYu-VUzBbBdaDqZlTOC= RlBvEq2N1H6OBg0fkA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43410307 45210159 45990097 46410026 46439990 46259958
    45919942 45699937 45559942 43430070 42720141 42080263
    42340313 42970339 43410307=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 24, 2023 00:11:29
    ACUS11 KWNS 240011
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 240010=20
    TXZ000-240215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1227
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0710 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

    Areas affected...parts of East Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364...

    Valid 240010Z - 240215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 364
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Local risk for strong/severe wind gusts, and large hail,
    continues in/near WW 364.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows that the cluster of storms --
    in the vicinity of TYR-GGG -- moving quickly southeastward across
    East Texas, has weakened a bit over the past hour. Still,
    strong/gusty winds are possible ahead of this cluster. Meanwhile, a
    more isolated cell has developed northeast of CRS, that is drifting
    slowly south-southeastward. This storm currently appears capable of
    producing hail near severe levels.=20

    Despite the signs of new storm development near the primary axis of
    instability (3000 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), overall convective
    trends over the next 1 to 2 hours should be steady to gradually
    downward, as diurnal stabilization commences and the low-level jet
    increase remains well west of this area.

    ..Goss.. 06/24/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5dtKbcJrXNpX8udfLNXkBEP49KHX2W9yT4oboBmaGS0bkmsAeVPERN5GrWmBy6cexaYSTAjNg= vxeG9M3F3BdabNjkJA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 31929681 32319652 32889569 32519523 31779494 31579610
    31929681=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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