ACUS11 KWNS 191702
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191702=20
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-191900-

Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1202 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern UT...western CO...and southwest WY

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 191702Z - 191900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms capable of large hail
and locally severe gusts will spread northward across parts of the
eastern Great Basin and central Rockies this afternoon. Watch
issuance is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...As a midlevel speed maximum and accompanying dry slot
continue overspreading parts of the eastern Great Basin and central
Rockies, pockets of diurnal heating and upslope flow amid the
strengthening large-scale ascent should support an uptick in
convective development through the afternoon hours. While buoyancy
will remain somewhat limited over the area, strong/deep
south-southwesterly flow will contribute to long/straight
hodographs, which combined with steep midlevel lapse rates could
support a few instances of large hail. In addition, storm splits and
eventual convective clustering could yield locally severe gusts with
any upscale-grown clusters as they spread northward through the
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected owing to the marginal and
localized nature of the threat.

..Weinman/Grams.. 06/19/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vg1yGwQZOg2tEQq0jK3I-Gd-6I9NrT51BDHaszLE2uM-Fse0MjJ-NXtDxrIk5Bq70M9dhBUr= MV31f4FElEdUM6lok8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...CYS...RIW...GJT...SLC...

LAT...LON 38020697 37510758 37510897 38420976 38981030 39971026
41151004 41590984 42320946 42500833 42360746 41370696
38020697=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 232129
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232129=20
FLZ000-232330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0429 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023

Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 232129Z - 232330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple loosely organized storms capable of wind damage
and marginal hail are possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing
across parts of central and southern Florida this afternoon,
generally focused along a southwest/northeast-oriented confluence
band and sea breeze boundaries. Given continued diurnal
destabilization of a moist air mass (lower/middle 70s dewpoints)
beneath steeper-than-average midlevel lapse rates, storms could
continue to strengthen through the afternoon. And, 30 kt of midlevel
flow (sampled by the MLB VWP) could aid in some updraft
organization. As storms generally spread northeastward toward the
coast, locally damaging gusts and marginal hail could accompany any
loosely organized clusters this afternoon. The threat should
generally remain localized and marginal.

..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/23/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9opq_B3oz1vF9De70o9-sroxsmBIVPv5qoStTJOWIC7ueO-C8AQ3cf7YsiJZ9thV37TvrLT9t= SGrCMsanMDX7DlOMSM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 26928046 26528072 26228109 26348162 27208166 27638169
28268178 28768136 28758070 28158040 27408025 26928046=20


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