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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1212

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 17, 2022 21:42:25
    ACUS11 KWNS 172142
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172142=20
    MTZ000-IDZ000-172345-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1212
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0442 PM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

    Areas affected...Northwest Montana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 172142Z - 172345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Though intense storm coverage will be limited, the
    environment will favor supercells capable of large/very-large hail
    and damaging wind gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored for a
    possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery indicates increasing large scale
    ascent within the northern Rockies region. Low 50s F dewpoints
    remain within northern parts of Montana. Modifying the 18Z TFX
    sounding for current conditions suggest most of the capping
    inversion has already mixed out. The expectation is for isolated
    storms to eventually develop within the terrain of west-central
    Montana and move into richer low-level moisture to the north. The
    observed sounding sampled a near 9 C/km mid-level lapse rate.
    Despite only 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, these lapse rates and strong
    effective shear (over 50 kts) will support organized storms so long
    as they can persist and mature. Large hail (some 2+ inches) would be
    possible with supercells. Even with weaker and less organized
    convection, wind gusts approaching severe limits would be possible
    given the dry/well-mixed boundary layer. With only isolated activity
    expected, the need for a watch is not clear. However, a couple of
    intense storms are possible. Trends will be monitored for a possible
    watch later this afternoon.

    ..Wendt.. 06/17/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9T29wnptaaQIg2ZRb3ZgTCKjiQP2JpgKl-azR42iKYJnMjC9AQ447OWtTAYi5P4Cy_BGjEa6k= njBCTLx4sv9FNvN-_4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

    LAT...LON 49001266 48151285 47141345 46701393 46521437 46531494
    46751530 48971484 49221419 49091266 49001266=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 22, 2023 22:01:48
    ACUS11 KWNS 222201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222201=20
    NMZ000-COZ000-222330-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1212
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0501 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northeastern NM and far southeastern CO

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359...

    Valid 222201Z - 222330Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 359
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for hail, damaging winds and a couple of
    tornadoes continue across WW359.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
    strong to severe thunderstorms ongoing within the upslope flow
    regime across far northeastern NM and southeastern CO. As storms
    have matured this afternoon, a few supercell structures have emerged
    aided by 40-45 kt of deep-layer shear. Large hail will remain likely
    with the strongest storms given the supercell mode, elongated
    mid-level hodographs and moderate buoyancy. As these storms continue
    eastward, they will cross a remnant outflow boundary from earlier
    storms. Along and east of the boundary, strongly backed flow in the
    lowest 1-2km is likely supporting greater low-level shear and some
    additional ambient vorticity. A locally favorable corridor for a
    couple of tornadoes may evolve this afternoon/evening.

    ..Lyons.. 06/22/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8IGuv8p6B_YBA5y5CzNLSA4cSy1o9X6x8UDYZ6ii74tHMuF9_t3W-1votfQylI3eJShzjOMj_= DedcELqIFTjtaYKbsw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37480480 37610409 37500357 36930303 36180310 35740308
    35430341 35290397 35280445 35350469 35440484 35670495
    36090512 37480480=20


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