ACUS11 KWNS 171349
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171348=20
KYZ000-VAZ000-TNZ000-NCZ000-INZ000-171515-

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0848 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky...much of
Tennessee

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 381...

Valid 171348Z - 171515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 381
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts continues within the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch area, and new downstream watches will be
needed soon.

DISCUSSION...A severe MCS continues to move east/southeast across
southern IN and western KY at 1345z, with recent reports of wind
damage and measured severe gusts. The downstream environment will
continue to destabilize given strong daytime heating of a very moist
air mass characterized by surface dew points in the 70s and PW
values in excess of 1.75 inches. Although deep-layer shear is
generally less than 25 kts, the established cold pool and continued
favorable thermodynamic environment with east/southward extent
suggests the severe threat will continue into the afternoon. As a
result, one or two downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watches will be
needed soon.

..Bunting/Grams.. 06/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!__x1wYM_XUTL_M_XlVStvNvYsd8iCY1ObZJ5CAfJXfpkWWSPpxsm5YJzXHog_IznWn2exjwwc= PQeieUbS2J6utYANmM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND... HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON 35328742 35758835 36258950 36878887 37008764 37328713
38078667 38758657 38788563 38478352 38078272 37038254
36168295 35578368 35318421 35018480 35108686 35328742=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 220835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220834=20
KSZ000-COZ000-221030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2023

Areas affected...southeast Colorado...far southwest Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357...

Valid 220834Z - 221030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 357
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and sporadic large hail remain possible
tonight over southeast Colorado. At least low-end severe potential
may affect parts of southwest Kansas late.

DISCUSSION...Storms over southeast CO have congealed into a small
MCS, with a persistent and discrete supercell on the southern end.
Damaging gusts appear to be the primary threat, with hail in the
more discrete storms. The substantial outflow being produced,
coupled with moist easterly storm-relative flow, suggest the severe
threat will be maintained for at least through watch expiration at
10Z. With time, these storms will move away from the stronger
instability, and interact with a zone of neutral to negative
low-level theta-e advection. As such, severe-storm coverage may thin
with time, favoring southern areas. At least locally severe gusts or
marginal hail may still occur late tonight into far southwest
KS/east of WW 357 with storms riding along the aforementioned
gradient, but additional watches are not expected at this time.

..Jewell.. 06/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-kbbBRVhCQpa7dwcHiSjAd4CLU10TcCGEnxpucV2xIB_eZq06gYyZ032pR4GVnh1wGdS8eH9U= ffHNqMIRxQWO-dTSZ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 37780408 37950406 38500384 38750361 38910337 39010294
38050130 37440127 37040164 37020267 37240308 37780408=20


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