ACUS11 KWNS 171038
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171038=20
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-171215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0538 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2022

Areas affected...southeast Missouri and southern Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 171038Z - 171215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for thunderstorm winds in excess of 60 mph will
continue this morning. A new watch will likely be needed across
portions of southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky,
and southwest Indiana.

DISCUSSION...A well-organized mesoscale convective system continues
moving east-southeast this morning into a strongly unstable
environment. Although effective-layer shear remains poor, storm- and
mesoscale organization will combine with the unstable environment to
pose a continued threat of thunderstorm winds in excess of 60 miles
per hour. As such a new Severe Thunderstorm Watch downstream of
watch #380 will likely be required this morning.

..Marsh/Thompson.. 06/17/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7B-klIRIiDkB9W-OrZtG0VBFkUbFOo3pYG7U4YQHAn_EwoMu19wCA5zegNp8rzSztl7hb5pkN= CkzQBpohB22lPywwtM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 38149114 39478913 39378690 38748626 37848699 37028796
36778916 36869024 37519088 38149114=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 220449
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220449=20
TXZ000-220615-

Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Big Country region of Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 355...356...

Valid 220449Z - 220615Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 355, 356 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail continues,
along with potential for a tornado.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a previously intense supercell
now weakening to some degree, with storms evolving into more of a
cluster, as opposed to a singular/dominant rotating updraft. Within
the past half hour, this storm/storm cluster produced a measured
gust of 95 MPH at the Rotan mesonet site. The cluster will continue
moving southeastward, affecting areas between SWW (Sweetwater) and
ABI (Abilene) over the next half hour.

The aforementioned, recent signs of subtle/gradual weakening will
likely continue, as the storms have moved through the greater
instability and now will begin to encounter more stable/convectively contaminated air over central Texas. Still, risk for damaging winds
and large hail will continue over the next hour to hour-and-a-half,
before the anticipated weakening to near or below minimal severe
levels occurs.

..Goss.. 06/22/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!90D6ni-HlxsX_2wvujnMBxfcwAe1vGUNxXTR_V127TnshX5DqYZnj3-x3DLze5YQCvdTjSMWv= z-YiYjO4k3G277YIio$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 32420089 32580042 32739962 31819908 31399923 31549982
31740084 32240098 32420089=20


=3D =3D =3D
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