ACUS11 KWNS 152153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152153=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-160030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Wed Jun 15 2022

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Mississippi into much of
Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 152153Z - 160030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A couple damaging gusts are possible with ongoing isolated
storms over the next couple of hours. A more concentrated risk of
damaging gusts may materialize if storms can merge into a line later
this evening. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending storm mergers.

DISCUSSION...Isolated pulse-cellular storms have recently matured
across eastern MS into AL over the last couple of hours per latest
MRMS mosaic radar imagery. One pulse storm along the Dallas/Lowndes
County, AL line has exhibited near 1.5 inch diameter via the MRMS
MESH algorithm, with a 55 kt gust recently observed per KSEM ASOS.
Though deep-layer shear is weak, the ongoing storms are thriving in
a 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE environment, driven by 70+F surface dewpoints
and near 100F surface temperatures. 20Z RAP forecast soundings
(valid for 22Z) shows a well-mixed boundary layer, with 21Z
mesoanalysis depicting 8.5 C/km 0-3 km lapse rates. As such, the
more intense storm cores may experience enough evaporative cooling
to support damaging gusts. Given modest mid-level lapse rates, an
instance of 1+ inch hail cannot be ruled out.

At the moment, the severe threat is expected to be sparse given the
isolated nature of the storms. However, should storms cluster and
form a loosely organized MCS structure later this evening, the
damaging gust threat could become more prevalent. As such,
conditions will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending MCS development.

..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/15/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7hadIdvzd-79FiGvFa09Zu9LOrdjoS1g6zSyNlAO5ZQ9nktE7AD17m4MqaR2QWlT2VgHYEjC9= a093WC9VNkwlkVljaA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...

LAT...LON 32328963 34578731 34818677 34798624 34358562 33008516
32318502 31768538 31458624 31278658 31228713 31338786
31548852 32328963=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 202330
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202329=20
MTZ000-WYZ000-210030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1179
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023

Areas affected...Central and Northeast Wyoming...Far Southeast
Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 202329Z - 210030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue over the next
couple of hours from central Wyoming to far southeast Montana.
Isolated large hail and a few damaging wind gusts will be possible.
Weather watch issuance remains possible across the region this
evening.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Cheyenne,
Wyoming shows a small cluster of storms across central Wyoming. The
storms are located near a southwest-to-northeast quasi-stationary
front where low-level convergence is maximized. Near the boundary,
surface temperatures are around 80 F and dewpoints are in the mid
50s F. This is contributing to a maximum in instability with MLCAPE
estimated near 1000 J/kg. In addition, forecast soundings across
central Wyoming early this evening have 0-6 km shear near 55 knots
with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 9.0 C/km. This should support the
continued development of isolated supercells with large hail. In
addition, a wind-damage threat may also develop, aided by large temperature-dewpoint spreads.

..Broyles/Thompson.. 06/20/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4oBdiFOadaI2WodXQ4iVLlaw5MjGsJf_hTiBvhN7gJJ7AYkAxJchKjcLMFbKZrgc99nnoNk3x= KSEg00J-Uj5BcNTdx0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON 44910656 45740589 46090543 46170501 46040447 45850426
45580424 45120451 44520504 43140620 42640696 42710758
43050790 43580768 44910656=20


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