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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1155

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 14, 2022 03:44:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 140344
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 140344=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-140445-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1155
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1044 PM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of central and southern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356...

    Valid 140344Z - 140445Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for additional severe storm potential
    across parts of Lower Michigan. A new watch may eventually be needed
    to replace Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356.

    DISCUSSION...In the wake of earlier convective processing across
    parts of Lower Michigan, a plume of low/midlevel warm advection atop
    the cold pool has supported additional convective development over
    parts of Lake Michigan eastward into central Lower Michigan. While
    most of this activity has been rooted above the boundary layer thus
    far, 50-60 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear (per the GRR VWP) oriented
    parallel to the thermal gradient aloft could support convective
    clustering and the potential for downdrafts to eventually reach the
    surface with any upscale-grown convection. If this were to occur,
    locally damaging gusts and isolated large hail would become an
    increasing concern. Convective evolution remains unclear at this
    time, though a new watch may eventually be needed for parts of Lower
    Michigan to replace Severe Thunderstorm Watch 356 which is valid
    until 04Z.

    ..Weinman/Thompson.. 06/14/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8ftjnScg7c_S-GPZP4IzYAoBPRRZCNhyf98G5o5wYOPYcU1l2sioKZ8RqSYJzms9LbSxFS_Ak= lBzpSzJ3QxNreYGLHQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...

    LAT...LON 41838597 42168638 42898662 43658671 43958648 43918573
    43358432 42268319 41778364 41738473 41838597=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 18, 2023 21:55:24
    ACUS11 KWNS 182155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 182154=20
    FLZ000-190000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1155
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2023

    Areas affected...the central FL Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 182154Z - 190000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is possible for the next
    couple hours across the central FL Peninsula. Localized wind gusts
    and small hail would be the primary threats.

    DISCUSSION...Isolated cumulonimbi have developed across the central
    FL Peninsula within a diurnally driven cumulus field. These updrafts
    are percolating in an environment characterized by around 3000 J/kg
    MLCAPE and 15 kts of bulk shear. This environment combined with
    rather weak upper-level forcing has yielded transient initiation
    attempts thus far (e.g., Marion County). Forcing and bulk shear
    should gradually increase throughout the afternoon as the main area
    of mid-level flow overspreads the region. However, general
    tropospheric flow is expected to remain around 30 kts or lower. This
    should limit any severe hazards to areas with stronger localized
    forcing, such as along storm-scale outflow boundaries or sea
    breezes. If locally stronger updrafts develop, isolated damaging
    wind gusts and small hail should be the primary threats.

    ..Flournoy/Grams.. 06/18/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!77sx2yL7OYCz5wFeNi9Ugtzw2E6eQYS0hfkXhDZMfyFrNE1zFl-ggGSnOWn_i4Zp_NHNHAHrx= Yli3Otl9jJBWZ1_ob0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

    LAT...LON 27148228 28158252 29328244 29718201 29678145 29178105
    28298066 27498031 26878003 26218008 25918043 25848112
    25968172 26548209 27148228=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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