ACUS11 KWNS 131407
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131406=20
ILZ000-IAZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-131600-

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0906 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Southern MN...North-Central/Northeast IA...Far
Southwest WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 131406Z - 131600Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail possible for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low over western NE,
with a warm front extending northeastward from this low into
northwest IA and then back southwestward through central and
southeast IA into central IL. A low-level jet exists south of this
warm front across the southern and central Plains, contributing to
strong warm-air advection across this frontal zone. Regional 12Z
soundings reveal a very moist low-level air mass beneath steep
mid-level lapse rates, resulting in very strong buoyancy. This
buoyancy in tandem with the warm-air advection is supporting the
development of robust thunderstorms from southern MN into north-central/northeast IA. Vertical shear is moderate throughout
the region, with the overall environment supportive of supercells
capable of large hail.=20

Low-level stability and current storm motion suggest these storms
are currently elevated, although some transition to a more
surface-based character is possible over the next few hours as the
air mass heats. Until then, large hail will be the primary severe
hazards. As the storms become more surface-based, the primary severe
threat will transition to strong wind gusts. Overall coverage of
severe remains uncertain, particularly in the near-term, with
additional uncertainty regarding the when/if storms will become more surface-based. Convective trends are being monitored closely for
possible watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 06/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_1uxmz0yQhReolBfLt2Cb_BjGuCydV0DL3LhSh1FsbRsIftitPy9Qedg9SagyTdBrLSH-MPah= axBbh5iwNiqk0tUx-g$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 44399416 44319266 44039171 43139072 42159054 41699086
41679169 42349313 42999448 43299565 43669602 44159569
44399416=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 180128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180128=20
KSZ000-180330-

Mesoscale Discussion 1142
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0828 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...portions of southwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328...

Valid 180128Z - 180330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 328
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts and hail continues across
WW328.

DISCUSSION...Convection over southwest KS has grown upscale into a
QLCS with a well-defined cold pool. Temperature deficits are roughly
20 F based on current surface observations. Numerous mesovortices
have developed along the gust front in the last hour or so, the
strongest of which passed very near KDDC around 01z. The 00z DDC
observed profile featured an uncapped environment with around 2200
J/kg of MLCAPE, a deep moist layer up to around 2300 m AGL, and
around 24 kts of 0-3-km shear with negligible lower-layer SRH.
Substantial modification occurred in the following hour,
particularly near the ground. VAD profiles just prior to the
system's arrival exhibited similar 0-3-km shear values (around 20-25
kts) with stronger low-layer shear and SRH (around 15 kts and 100
J/kg from 0-1 km AGL, respectively). These characteristics are
consistent with an environment supportive of repeated
mesocyclogenesis along the leading edge of QLCSs. The environment is
expected to remain supportive of stronger updrafts and mesovortex
generation within the line. These areas will continue to pose a
locally higher threat for damaging wind gusts and hail within the
broader, severe-wind-producing system. This threat is expected to
continue for the next couple of hours as the QLCS progresses
eastward through WW328 before encountering less bulk shear and
weakening overnight.

..Flournoy.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-q1rsbx67hfb2m8GcD6gCaDRDg9U-yUPgrkOa-63XDu6plP9XkfE0yMSmY56n1WSUA3uYgYjn= j3n8RsnRGhIknBXXYc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 37390004 37910040 38560075 39230077 39490028 39509969
39079916 38279863 37739856 37369875 37239944 37390004=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)