ACUS11 KWNS 131040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131040=20
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-131315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0540 AM CDT Mon Jun 13 2022

Areas affected...Southern Minnesota...Far Northern Iowa...Far
Western Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 131040Z - 131315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop across parts of
southern Minnesota and far northern Iowa over the next couple of
hours. But the threat is expected to remain too marginal for weather
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Minneapolis shows
a short line segment just north of the Iowa state-line, with a warm
advection wing of storms extending east-southeastward across parts
of southern Minnesota. The storms are located along a gradient of
moderate instability extending east-southeastward. As the storms
move east-northeastward, they will move into weaker instability
across southeast Minnesota. For this reason, some weakening is
expected to occur. However, there is some uncertainty.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8qd3AVEPjGMq1hAh22Lk8_6KD4izdnYbQ9Iih0BaM3bv-joFfuyqgNNVhbTZlxW5dLIMYkGdD= nxkgRSrKyJKTmfCVl8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 43649515 43309464 43339352 43439220 43499162 43829125
44139125 44449141 44669177 44669254 44479453 44039518
43649515=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 180058
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180058=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas...Far Southwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 180058Z - 180300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across
south-central Oklahoma and north Texas over the next few hours.
Weather watch issuance will likely be needed by 03Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution WSR-88D radar imagery from
Frederick, Oklahoma shows a cluster of strong to severe storms in
far southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. To the west of this
cluster, a band of large-scale ascent has been approaching northwest
Texas over the last couple of hours. In response, lift has become
increasingly favorable for convective development, with the cluster
of storms becoming more organized. In addition, low-level flow will
steadily increase across the Red River Valley as well. These factors
should result in a gradual increase in convective coverage, as an
MCS organizes and moves eastward across south-central Oklahoma and
north Texas. The stronger cells within this cluster will have a
potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will
increase steadily likely necessitating watch issuance.

..Broyles.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5EA83uVFE747nNI2GkJkBkl6mqjYE83tjLCs4FsH8WtVAVkxMf57M5f0s7btrNEK75jiBMfBu= N4jdlarNbFJ3ohS8RE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35269808 34939890 33999926 33359859 33329565 33419418
33889371 34609410 35119592 35269808=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 180118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180117 COR
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-180300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1141
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0817 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...Southern Oklahoma...North Texas...Far Southwest
Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 180117Z - 180300Z

CORRECTED FOR GRAPHIC

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across
south-central Oklahoma and north Texas over the next few hours.
Weather watch issuance will likely be needed by 03Z.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution WSR-88D radar imagery from
Frederick, Oklahoma shows a cluster of strong to severe storms in
far southwest Oklahoma and northwest Texas. To the west of this
cluster, a band of large-scale ascent has been approaching northwest
Texas over the last couple of hours. In response, lift has become
increasingly favorable for convective development, with the cluster
of storms becoming more organized. In addition, low-level flow will
steadily increase across the Red River Valley as well. These factors
should result in a gradual increase in convective coverage, as an
MCS organizes and moves eastward across south-central Oklahoma and
north Texas. The stronger cells within this cluster will have a
potential for large hail and wind damage. The severe threat will
increase steadily likely necessitating watch issuance.

..Broyles.. 06/18/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8kQKk52TYkhbi0Z5QjPDs-chSbrvjL__Tiz2oPINqoo8_QZSPVqE0yoSSEXq4nf8qdkVpL9Rv= AwrXpYZgPEJrr_hVDE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35269808 34939890 33999926 33359859 33329565 33419418
33889371 34609410 35119592 35269808=20


=3D =3D =3D
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