ACUS11 KWNS 130247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130246=20
SDZ000-130415-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

Areas affected...Parts of south-central South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353...

Valid 130246Z - 130415Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 353
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe gusts and large hail are the primary concerns
across parts of south-central SD, though a tornado cannot be ruled
out.

DISCUSSION...A developing MCS continues tracking east-southeastward
across parts of south-central South Dakota -- along the northern
periphery of moderate/strong instability. Regional VWP data shows
45-55 kt of westerly 0-6 km bulk shear, which is forcing
deeper/sustained updrafts along the eastern periphery of the cold
pool. Here, embedded supercell structures are also evident -- aided
by strengthening warm advection and related veering in the lowest 3
km. While the primary concern continues to be damaging gusts and
isolated large hail, a tornado or two remains possible along the
eastern and southeastern periphery of the larger cold pool.

..Weinman.. 06/13/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4LhHL0btfbsmWRjbkvPzlHQBuJcFt1jLUFLO-GXVrDUQhoOmSUeBOLnDUCsiJOzIhtr8rNU8w= 5_TZv_cqke2bqVfj34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...

LAT...LON 44110166 44270145 44520123 44620105 44630057 44519989
44229970 43509969 43050017 43020103 43080156 43630212
43960216 44110166=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 172353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172352=20
TXZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1138
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0652 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

Areas affected...West-central Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325...

Valid 172352Z - 180145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 325
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for significant hail greater than 2 inches in
diameter, damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will continue
across parts of west-central Texas over the next one to two hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest WSR-88D radar imagery from Lubbock shows a
cluster of severe storms across the Low Rolling Plains of
west-central Texas. A supercell has become intense in Jones and
Stonewall County, about 100 statute miles to the southeast of
Lubbock. This supercell is in a very favorable thermodynamic
environment for large hail, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE near 5000
J/kg and 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8.5 C/km. As the storm moves east-southeastward towards Stephenville, Texas, hailstones of
greater than 3 inches in diameter will be possible. A wind damage
and isolated tornado threat will also continue with this supercell.
Further south, a potential for wind damage and large hail is
expected to continue across the central and southern part of WW 325
over the next couple of hours.

..Broyles.. 06/17/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4TXEV0WYfgt5zN2wgsbyJZrjhdI6XaLlU7lSHGpGn5kAmBcWD1Oj1AqbSAaxS_GodRigM66fY= tsl3iPalATc-v9SPXs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 32700031 33240016 33489975 33269847 32519800 31689837
31509902 31970001 32420029 32700031=20


=3D =3D =3D
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