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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1133

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 23:19:28
    ACUS11 KWNS 122319
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 122319=20
    KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-130145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1133
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0619 PM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

    Areas affected...southeastern Colorado and western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 122319Z - 130145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
    over southeastern Colorado. Convective trends will be monitored for
    the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch over portions of
    southeastern Colorado and western Kansas.

    DISCUSSION...Aided by large-scale ascent moving across the region, thunderstorms have increased in coverage and intensity over portions
    of the southeastern Colorado plains. As these storms continue to
    move northeastward, they will encounter a more moist and unstable
    environment. Despite marginal deep-layer shear (30-35 knots) across
    the area, it should be sufficient to sustain at least some storm
    organization into the evening hours. Initial updraft cores may be
    capable of producing severe hail, but the primary threat is expected
    to transition to severe wind this evening. High-based storms will
    promote outflow mergers and upscale growth. Additionally, the
    low-level jet is expected to increase this evening (by 03Z) into
    southwestern Kansas, which should promote maintenance and upscale
    growth of convective clusters capable of producing severe winds.

    ..Jirak/Thompson.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-vn0OOaJugUqa5sjzx-J7Ko9HiftnhKi3HW4t-iBnlHUEldV1GKOMh83mtp7pSnQEjw1FF4pJ= _fi9gSVowtgcrPyaVE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37080189 37330227 38110336 38640347 39200232 39630134
    39969979 39439889 38859870 38279895 37769964 36900113
    37080189=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 22:30:11
    ACUS11 KWNS 172230
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172229=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-180030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1133
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0529 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...portions of northern Missouri

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 172229Z - 180030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may persists for a few
    hours this evening with a risk for hail and damaging winds. Low
    storm coverage and uncertainty on longevity suggest a watch is
    unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated thunderstorms have intensified over portions of northern MO in the
    last hour. To the south of a remnant MCV over western IA, forcing
    for ascent is rather nebulous over much of the region, and storms
    are primarily being driven by moderate buoyancy (2000-2500 J/kg of
    MLCAPE) and afternoon heating. Area VADs show weak shear and storms
    will likely remain multicellular given the lack of stronger flow
    aloft. There remains some uncertainty on the longevity of any severe
    risk given the lack of broader forcing. Regardless, recent reports
    of golf ball hail and the presence of strong updrafts in moderate
    buoyancy suggests the risk for isolated hail and damaging outflow
    winds may persist for a few hours this evening before storms weaken
    after sunset. Convective trends will be monitored, but a weather
    watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Grams.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5E9bXsd2HnGTzymLgOezT5J5yuD16GdmqOZskLaAJQWtnDMMpVSDdX-fofEfXt7jRbjCQgwjQ= l9YGbrHYyEYL2P9lfA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...

    LAT...LON 40409291 40099283 39589318 39389352 39199381 39169432
    39609491 40229536 40509542 40549495 40569408 40499316
    40409291=20


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