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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1128

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 15:15:56
    ACUS11 KWNS 121515
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 121515=20
    KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-121715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 12 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of east central Missouri and central/southern
    Illinois and Indiana

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 121515Z - 121715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...It currently appears most probable that ongoing strong
    thunderstorm development will tend to wane through midday. However,
    until it does, occasional severe hail and locally strong surface
    gusts will remain possible.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms slowly approaching the Interstate 70
    corridor might be aided by forcing associated with a subtle short
    wave impulse progressing around the northeastern of prominent
    mid-level ridging centered over the southern Great Plains. This is
    also near and east of the plume of much warmer and more strongly
    capping elevated mixed-layer air spreading east of the Great Plains.
    =20
    As the weak impulse progresses into the lower Ohio through this
    afternoon, and much more prominent upstream mid-level troughing
    progresses inland of the Pacific coast, models suggest that the
    warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air will
    continue to spread east of the mid/lower Mississippi Valley
    vicinity. Based on forecast soundings, among other model output, it
    appears that this may occur faster than any eastward advection of
    the higher boundary-layer moisture content (supportive of the large
    CAPE), which may remain focused near/west of the Mississippi Valley,
    closer to deeper surface troughing across the Great Plains.

    Given expected trends for increasing mid-level inhibition and
    weakening supporting forcing for ascent, it remains unclear how much
    longer stronger thunderstorm development supportive of severe hail
    and strong surface gusts will be maintained.

    ..Kerr/Guyer.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ovk1VheVTTvyD26e4oBFtjMRaqD7y6RDD8tYv-tEylMHBytzNmegXhv9z7EnM9H1swjX91d2= JEwdFgyDf5QIdjrZuY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...

    LAT...LON 39538997 40098916 40758824 40198608 39708497 38958481
    38328743 37938929 38209032 38759050 39538997=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 20:44:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 172044
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 172044=20
    FLZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-172215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1128
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0344 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and
    the FL Panhandle

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323...

    Valid 172044Z - 172215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large to very large hail will remain possible with
    multiple supercells this afternoon. Damaging winds may also occur.

    DISCUSSION...Widely spaced supercells are ongoing this afternoon
    from far southern MS into southern AL and parts of the FL Panhandle.
    With both strong to extreme instability and 40-50+ kt of effective
    bulk shear present across this region, very large hail of 2+ inches
    will remain the primary severe concern in the short term as these
    supercells develop south-southeastward. The strongest supercell at
    the moment per recent MRMS MESH estimates is located over far
    southwestern MS, moving into southeastern LA. Steepened low-level
    lapse rates should also support occasional damaging winds with any
    convective downdrafts. Although low-level westerly winds remain
    fairly modest, there is strengthening/veering to northwesterly with
    height through mid levels. Up to 100 m2/s2 of effective SRH suggest
    a tornado remains possible with any intense supercell.

    ..Gleason.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7L-jRbTq13jhFz8SvC6U5WkJJsDi7koNKuXLuHi9KgiPrpkzdQxQH1dlKnRhNpHNtB78W5m8b= EYncdMUpMjVlbRXsHg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31369164 31898903 31518606 30228433 30388651 30229090
    31369164=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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