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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1124

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 04:17:23
    ACUS11 KWNS 120417
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120416=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-120615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1124
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1116 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

    Areas affected...parts of northwest Missouri into northeast Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

    Valid 120416Z - 120615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A severe risk may persist for a couple more hours with a
    slow-moving cluster of storms over northwest Missouri, with hail or
    locally damaging winds.

    DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms continues to move mainly south
    toward northern parts of the K.C. metro area, with a new hail core
    developing on the western flank recently. The air mass remains very
    unstable, and with continued outflow to focus redevelopment, other
    new updrafts may continue to form along the western edge of the
    cluster. Winds from surface to 850 mb remain out of the
    south/southwest, which is maintaining moisture advection.
    Eventually, CIN will increase to a point where this cluster will
    shrink, signaling the end of the severe event. Until then, the
    threat may persist over a few more counties, and perhaps even cross
    into Kansas. Local extensions to the watch in time may be
    considered.

    ..Jewell.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!67pZb_1o1vA_KQuNjmefa5Qw5onZzilH4dWRUmu_L5ItJTZutu7USuCkLcek03gxHe0rlw3xy= ZJ_QC4zRR5bfsBELGc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...EAX...

    LAT...LON 39589483 39659460 39649428 39579417 38739408 38309426
    38279469 38469496 39139488 39589483=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 18:08:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 171808
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171807=20
    COZ000-172000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1124
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...southeast Colorado

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 171807Z - 172000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to intensify over the
    next few hours and move east/southeast off of the higher terrain and
    across southeast Colorado. Damaging gusts and large to very large
    hail hail will be the primary threats, although a tornado will also
    be possible. A watch will be needed shortly.

    DISCUSSION...A focused region of large-scale ascent moving east
    across central CO will combine with moist southeasterly low-level
    flow and contribute to an increase in thunderstorm coverage over the
    higher terrain west of Interstate 25 over the next 1-2 hours. These
    storms will move east/southeast across southeast CO where visible
    imagery suggests that convective inhibition continues to weaken.
    Continued daytime heating and lower 50s surface dewpoints will
    combine with steep mid-level lapse rates to result in moderate
    MLCAPE. Deep-layer shear will support a mix of supercell structures
    and line segments capable of severe wind gusts and large hail. More
    discrete supercells will be capable of very large hail (in excess of
    2 inches) given ample CAPE in the -10C to -30 layer. Damaging wind
    gusts will become more likely with time as linear structures evolve
    with eastward extent.=20

    Convective trends are being monitored and a watch will likely be
    needed shortly.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!743dloDuIDognjiHKIyKW6m41i5H0-Te9oeHVQWHEwHUUgXcrer4qYZTmStq8ak9iOSyd3MWu= CrsAjRtlwgC3Lr2fPw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37050354 37080401 37230474 37860480 38320477 38650452
    38750403 38740353 38650275 38460208 37780204 37470210
    37070227 37010281 37050354=20


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