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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1123

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, June 12, 2022 03:50:51
    ACUS11 KWNS 120350
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 120350=20
    SDZ000-WYZ000-120515-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1123
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1050 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

    Areas affected...Northeast WY into western/south-central SD

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347...

    Valid 120350Z - 120515Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 347
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for hail and potentially significant wind gusts
    may persist into late tonight. Some threat may spread east of WW
    347, and downstream watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Convection has substantially intensified over the last
    60-90 minutes from northeast WY into western SD, as it has moved
    into a somewhat more moist and unstable environment. Significant
    wind gusts have been noted with the intense cluster moving just
    north of Rapid City, and this cluster will continue to pose a threat
    of hail and potentially significant (65+ kt) gusts in the short term
    as it moves east-southeastward. Weaker instability is noted
    downstream, but very favorable deep-layer shear and the current
    well-organized structure will help to sustain a severe threat
    downstream into late tonight, as this small MCS moves along a weak
    frontal zone.=20

    To the west, multiple supercells have redeveloped across northeast
    WY. These cells will pose a short-term threat of very large hail and
    severe wind gusts as they move into the Black Hills. Another cluster
    may eventually evolve out of these cells and move east-southeastward
    along a track just to the south of the leading cluster, with a
    continued threat of severe wind/hail.=20

    While some weakening will eventually occur overnight, the leading
    cluster may pose a severe threat downstream of WW 347, while the
    western storms may persist across western SD beyond the 05Z
    expiration time. New watch issuance is possible prior to 05Z across
    parts of western into south-central SD.

    ..Dean/Thompson.. 06/12/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5DxrlhYsSCNOEExDFw75c4VvXLQ2tPLNCxMVjNvodzUXaNc1vGYvrnnSfJxrkBeVYd-zLQSRH= wxyFITUZJ6IMerrkzU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 44910474 45030279 44720097 43919979 43500018 43130077
    43180272 43620465 44210497 44910474=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 17, 2023 15:43:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 171543
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 171543=20
    FLZ000-171715-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1123
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1043 AM CDT Sat Jun 17 2023

    Areas affected...central and southern Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 171543Z - 171715Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms in clusters/short line segments will
    continue moving east across portions of central/southern Florida
    through early afternoon. Strong/damaging gusts will be the primary
    severe risk, and trends are being monitored for the possibility of a
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    DISCUSSION...Regional radar composite shows thunderstorms in
    clusters/short line segments over the central FL peninsula at 1535z.
    A recent gust to 57 kt was observed at KMCO/Orlando International
    Airport, otherwise most convective gusts thus far have been in the
    40 to 55 mph range. South and east of ongoing storms, daytime
    heating is contributing to strong instability (MLCAPE averaging 3000
    J/kg). Additional storm development is possible as a mid-level
    perturbation within the broadly cyclonic mid-level flow moves east
    across the area. Mid-level flow of 30-35 kts will be sufficient for
    organized storms/clusters. Low-level flow remains veered, however,
    and some uncertainty exists regarding the coverage of severe storms
    with southward extent.

    Current expectations are that a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
    needed in the next few hours if observational and short-term
    guidance trends support sufficient severe storm coverage south of
    ongoing storms.

    ..Bunting/Hart.. 06/17/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9AHm4BuwLTRAPJXE9YWZbavMGaheXNhr2pENOCSQIw3T5KNQ_DAnFIvaof2SJSfHYeJmK0f-f= UoauCzc-SZV-RXdz9U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

    LAT...LON 26157999 25948124 27798213 28168208 28648182 28798150
    28868118 28788085 28518044 27197987 26157999=20


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