ACUS11 KWNS 111959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111959=20
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-112130-
Mesoscale Discussion 1118
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022
Areas affected...portions of eastern Nebraska southwestern Iowa and
far northern Kansas/Missouri.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20
Valid 111959Z - 112130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms including supercells appear
increasingly likely late this afternoon into this evening along the
Missouri River Valley and into southwestern IA. Large to very large
hail, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. A
Tornado watch will likely be needed by 20-22z.
DISCUSSION...As of 1950Z, regional visible imagery showed cumulus
towers exhibiting initial glaciation/deepening ahead of a weak
vortmax/surface low across eastern NE. Several prominent surface
boundaries within proximity to the low were acting as a focus for
low-level convergence ahead of a subtle 500 mb trough within
northwesterly flow aloft. As ascent and strong afternoon heating
continue, (surface temps in the upper 80s low 90s F) objective
analysis suggests remaining inhibition will likely diminish to
breakable levels in the next couple of hours. Surface dewpoints in
the upper 60s to low 70s F along with steep mid-level lapse rates of
8 C/km are supporting 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NE,
southwestern IA into portions of northern KS/MO. 50 to 60 kts of
effective shear are evident in long hook shaped hodographs from area soundings/VAD VWPS. This wind profile will initially support
supercells capable of large to very large hail (2+ in), and strong
outflow winds. A few tornadoes also appear possible with the more
discrete storms owing to backed surface flow and enlarged low-level
hodographs along the surface boundaries.
Current hi-res model and observational data suggest storm
development is likely within the next couple of hours near peak
heating. While some uncertainty exists on the western and eastern
limits of the severe potential, the environment appears highly
favorable for supercells across much of the Missouri valley Region.
This suggests a weather watch is likely needed in the next couple of
hours.
..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/11/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5toKjcJ_o8c3mGC2DFtB7YtGd_Y2utEhTaLRYP_p55wvgm4_LgPpVcVdf_UvMZ2jp8I14i0aa= sUGXpjTzVqzf95Yk3Y$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40089707 40639728 41339736 42019703 42179664 42209624
42199532 41999475 41839442 41609404 40579373 40079403
39659485 39539529 39509564 39509601 39539668 40089707=20
=3D =3D =3D
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