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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1117

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 11, 2022 19:15:50
    ACUS11 KWNS 111915
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 111915=20
    MTZ000-WYZ000-112215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0215 PM CDT Sat Jun 11 2022

    Areas affected...Much of southeastern Montana and adjacent northern
    Wyoming

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111915Z - 112215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to initiate during the next few
    hours and may gradually organize and intensify through 3-5 PM MDT,
    with increasing potential for strong wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Modest low-level moistening is ongoing in a corridor
    beneath a strong mid/upper jet emanating from the mid-latitude
    Pacific. As insolation continues, boundary-layer destabilization is
    underway, particularly across much of the Yellowstone Basin into the
    higher terrain north of the Big Horn Basin. This is on the northern
    periphery of the warmer mid-level air associated with a prominent
    mid-level high shifting across/east of the southern Rockies.=20
    Relative to areas farther south, more modestly deepening and drying boundary-layer mixing and weaker inhibition may allow for increasing thunderstorm development as mid/upper flow slowly transitions from
    broadly anticyclonic to cyclonic through 21-23Z.

    Although stronger wind fields are concentrated in mid/upper levels,
    strong, generally unidirectional deep-layer shear may contribute to
    the evolution of supercell structures posing a risk for severe hail.
    Gradually, the most vigorous convection may become capable of
    producing locally strong surface gusts, and consolidating cold pools
    could contribute to one or two upscale growing and organizing
    clusters with perhaps a more substantive/widespread risk for severe
    gusts.

    ..Kerr/Bunting.. 06/11/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5w31Z6uPJszYXkNEOYkklmUux6jQ4Pr96xvgOs7KzqYVNT1XgVEXNXNP1IJTMOops31Ph7Rp4= oFHXwsYRSAM74kl2H0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 46340765 46690568 45710410 45430557 44760664 45060793
    45260881 45320943 45661007 46050922 46150850 46340765=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 16, 2023 23:39:03
    ACUS11 KWNS 162338
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 162338=20
    KSZ000-COZ000-170145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1117
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0638 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023

    Areas affected...eastern Colorado and western Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319...

    Valid 162338Z - 170145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large hail and damaging winds continues
    across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 319, and a downstream Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch into Kansas will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...A few severe storms have largely remained discrete
    across eastern Colorado this afternoon. As the storms continue to
    move eastward into the evening, the expectation is that the severe
    weather threat will continue into Kansas as storms grow upscale into
    one or more clusters. While this is an atypical pattern for warm
    season MCSs across the region (being north of an 850 mb front),
    there will be increasing warm-air advection at 700 mb this evening
    with sufficient instability and shear to support eastward
    propagating clusters capable of producing damaging winds. Thus, a
    downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch into western Kansas will likely
    be needed in the next couple of hours.

    ..Jirak/Grams.. 06/16/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4UuklUpCVyMmbK1EHYl0rxT12WjpAFmSQ_GCbp2AqxYm0gWEwMkv9dNWEmrsUaIidp2f0DTJ_= FOu2ZtaFAeRoQX75FE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

    LAT...LON 37480419 38430458 38990442 39430301 39860136 39930022
    39209973 38149997 37890043 37610268 37480419=20


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