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ACUS11 KWNS 052243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052242=20
MOZ000-052345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CST Sat Mar 05 2022

Areas affected...northwestern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

Valid 052242Z - 052345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorms expected over the next 1 to 2
hours will likely require tornado watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows convection slowly developing
across northwestern Missouri and adjacent northeastern Kansas -- as
far south as the Kansas City metro area. The convection is evolving
ahead of the eastward-moving cold front, within a thermodynamic
environment comprised of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, and weak
capping.

As the front advances, ascent -- aided by the mid-level short-wave
trough crossing Nebraska/Kansas -- will support development of
additional/more widespread storms over the next couple of hours.=20
With weak low-level veering and a substantial increase in wind speed
with height, shear favoring supercells will support severe potential
with stronger storms, including risk for a couple of tornadoes. As
such, a new tornado watch will likely be required for portions of
northwestern Missouri.

..Goss/Thompson.. 03/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!owvTRng5d5aX4EK_Vpg_VY4SBprPHYS8IMkE7amOOr2h8tkT9Ur12t0G-dhhR1GSpYtzzsFg$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...

LAT...LON 38849416 39419402 40139398 40329272 39979206 39139222
38379383 38539400 38849416=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 270153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270153=20
OKZ000-270330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Areas affected...portions of western into central OK

Concerning...Tornado Watch 43...44...

Valid 270153Z - 270330Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 43, 44 continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of intense damaging gusts and possibly a tornado
will shift east/northeast from western into central OK over the next
1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...An intense bowing segment with an eastward-advancing
line of convection was located near Kiowa and Washita Counties in
western OK. Measured gusts from the Oklahoma Mesonet between 62 and
78 mph have been noted with this area of convection over the past
30-60 minutes. This area of storms will continue tracking
east/northeast at around 60-70 mph, bringing a swath of intense
damaging gusts toward the OKC Metro vicinity by 9pm CST. Wind gusts
to 80-90 mph appear possible with this convection. Additionally,
given intense low-level shear, mesovortex tornadoes also will be
possible.

..Leitman.. 02/27/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-rSCTe7u01eW2_h1aOnuob1RqqwcMmT15mTFdWPNCdSTQJw7grStStbESau1gf8G_BDscbqN8= tw8c_BlPyFrg8Lu2BQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON 35299940 35489875 35819760 35779724 35579710 35419710
35169735 35019783 34939828 34839899 34789941 34909956
35109956 35299940=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 071642
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071642=20
NEZ000-COZ000-072045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0196
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Areas affected...Northeast Colorado to southwest Nebraska

Concerning...Heavy snow=20

Valid 071642Z - 072045Z

SUMMARY...The potential for heavy snowfall rates above 1 inch/hour
will increase through early afternoon across parts of northeast
Colorado into southwest Nebraska.

DISCUSSION...Over the past 1-2 hours, surface observations across
northeast CO have shown a steady reduction in visibility due to
falling snow as low-level temperatures fall below freezing and allow
a p-type transition to mainly snow. This activity is largely being
driven by a corridor of focused ascent within a warm advection
regime between roughly 850-650 mb to the north of a meandering
vorticity maximum (evident in water-vapor and regional radar
imagery). Broad ascent within a mid-level deformation zone draped
over the region should not only augment local ascent, but also
prolong the duration of precipitation through the afternoon/evening.
This should foster a swath of moderate to heavy snow with snowfall
rates between 1-2 inches/hour. Furthermore, upstream lightning and
regional 12 UTC soundings indicated mid-level lapse rates are
sufficiently steep for a continuation of weak convection across
parts of CO/NE, which may lead to brief bursts of heavier snowfall.
Latest high-res guidance suggests the onset of heavier snowfall
rates is probable during the 18-20 UTC period, which seems
reasonable based on the aforementioned observed trends.

..Moore.. 03/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_p9btusuLUe7CgS5R-0BrvAqm2POwRp5XqP4wcTWKl9GaDX4RpdRlxP7QtDUEDmlXbuTLkoBC= YYh6rfLI-30jj_n-jA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 40130357 40920323 41110300 41530223 41590196 41590167
41450139 41210129 40850163 40680191 40450233 40210263
39930292 39860306 39840320 39930352 40130357=20


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