ACUS11 KWNS 081204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081204=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-081400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 AM CDT Wed Jun 08 2022

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...Western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330...

Valid 081204Z - 081400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 330
continues.

SUMMARY...A wind-damage and isolated large hail threat will likely
continue for several more hours this morning across parts of the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. The severe threat could drift
southward into parts of West and Northwest Texas, where another
watch could be needed.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Amarillo shows an east-to-west line of strong to severe thunderstorms located from the
central Texas Panhandle eastward into western Oklahoma. The line is
along the northern edge of a pocket of moderate to strong
instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range. This is reflected on the Amarillo 12Z sounding, which has
steep lapse rates in the 700 and 500 mb layer. Effective shear at
Amarillo is about 35 knots suggesting that the combination of CAPE
and shear is favorable for severe storms. In spite of a surface
inversion, the stronger cells within the line segment have produced
wind gusts above 65 knots, suggesting that the storms are rooted
closer to the surface. As the line moves southward into the stronger instability, the severe threat should continue and weather watch
issuance will need to be considered.

..Broyles.. 06/08/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6IE_M5fgCSkTa4jQ3wlf2r6R6CDhfsYI2Z5ubpAlfIgUSeHxk73MGA_xsvWZ14nOim8pPrQrm= 4mJjwb-WQ-abSJGtRU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 35359849 35059893 34869953 34740007 34720071 34690165
34770213 34930243 35230248 35480238 35690207 35710121
35760017 35739873 35359849=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 152355
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152354=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-160130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1087
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern OK into north-central TX

Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...309...

Valid 152354Z - 160130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307, 309 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large hail, severe/damaging winds, and
tornadoes will continue this evening.

DISCUSSION...The supercell thunderstorm complex in southern OK may
be trying to grow into a small bowing cluster based on recent radar
trends. The environment downstream remains quite favorable
along/south of an effective warm front that extends from
western/southern OK into north-central and northeast TX. Large hail
will remain possible with these intense thunderstorms in the short
term, and severe/damaging winds may become an increasing concern if
a more linear mode becomes dominant. If this mode transition occurs,
then significant severe wind gusts (75+ mph) would become more
likely given the very large reservoir of buoyancy available. Backed
low-level flow near the surface front is promoting a narrow corridor
of 200-300 m2/s2 of effective SRH per latest mesoanalysis estimates.
Given the favorable low-level shear, tornadoes will remain possible
with embedded circulations. A local extension in area for Tornado
Watch 309 may be needed for part of north-central into northeast TX
if convection continues to track southeastward.

..Gleason.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!68mkROOY5RCLwNVNVmc6Dq85aW0vOOKFNaXXdw3cDP2QOIiwrX8grSHqtSllmmqfRaPzK7ujU= 4pzx0zlV149CnlwTjQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34019776 34469721 33679548 32909589 33289705 34019776=20


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