ACUS11 KWNS 152153
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152152=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-152315-
Mesoscale Discussion 1082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0452 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Areas affected...Portions of the eastern OK/TX Panhandles into
western/southern OK and western north TX
Concerning...Tornado Watch 307...
Valid 152152Z - 152315Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 307 continues.
SUMMARY...Very large hail, severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will
remain a threat with multiple supercells.
DISCUSSION...A pair of supercells that developed over southwestern
OK have matured as they approach Lawton OK. Very large hail up to
2.75" has been reported with one of these cells, and the threat for
giant hail (3-4+ inches) will continue with any supercell given the
very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. Both of
these cells have recently exhibited rightward deviant motion, and
are ingesting sufficient low-level helicity to support updraft
rotation. Indeed, the leading cell has shown signs of intense
low-level rotation in the past 15-20 minutes, and a tornado may
occur. Destructive RFD winds may occur as well.
Additional intense supercells will likely develop rapidly in the
next couple of hours across the eastern TX Panhandle into western
north TX along/east of a surface dryline. Very large hail,
severe/damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible as these
supercells strengthen into western OK and western north TX. A more
favored location for tornadoes may exist across west-central into
southwestern OK along/near the intersection of the dryline and what
appears to be an outflow/instability gradient laid out from the
leading pair of supercells. Low-level winds are backed to more
easterly across this area, which should locally enhance effective
SRH and tornado potential with any sustained supercell.
Finally, severe/damaging wind potential will likely increase across
the far eastern OK Panhandle into northwestern OK over the next
couple of hours. Convection in southwestern KS has grown upscale
into an MCS with multiple measured severe wind gusts up to 56 kt.
Very large hail and tornadoes will also remain a concern with any
embedded supercells, particularly with southward extent where
convection may remain semi-discrete.
..Gleason.. 06/15/2023
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wg0xH0tSChScQLflndQn-AkzKz3hmb-b72pWoKwWMIYX_QhvB2kNgxwDkE9VyQQ36DjlOGxB= rBtCBRUAdg5tdsFq6o$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36709939 35399842 34419735 33959720 34029769 33709849
33759957 34260033 34840070 35440097 36690097 36970023
36709939=20
=3D =3D =3D
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