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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1074

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 07, 2022 20:56:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 072056
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 072055=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-072300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1074
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0355 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

    Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
    northwest Nebraska

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321...

    Valid 072055Z - 072300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 321
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather continues across WW 321.
    Severe hail will remain the predominant for the next 1-2 hours
    before a gradual increase in severe wind potential later this
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...Several discrete supercells are being tracked across
    far eastern WY, southwest SD, and northwest NE. Several severe hail
    reports have been noted with this activity, including a report of
    1.75 inch hail. Instability has increased over the past 2 hours with
    MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg for most of the region. Effective
    bulk shear remains near 40-50, so in general the environment remains
    supportive for organized convection.=20

    A pair of supercells across the NE panhandle are fairly isolated,
    and visible imagery shows little development in their immediate
    vicinity. Additionally, these cells are migrating into better
    low-level moisture, which will provide better surface-based
    buoyancy. Consequently, these cells will continue to pose a large
    hail threat and may have the best chance for producing significant
    hail in the near term.=20

    Further to the north, semi-discrete supercells and a developing
    cluster are noted from the WY/NE border to the Rapid City, SD
    region. The stronger, more discrete cells will continue to pose a
    hail risk, but trends from KUDX suggest that outflows may be
    starting to consolidate. A transition to a more linear storm mode
    may be underway, and a more substantial severe wind threat may
    emerge across far northwest NE/southwest SD over the next 1-3 hours.

    ..Moore.. 06/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_NZK7nOom4PMPAdd-Tfn4fAHPnvVLd-LpdAnZy8D8vF19RkbGiSxlsstlyhF3U6gjABs9MsO2= uCOdVPYRIUADtxsDOI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43170447 43680432 44080365 44370274 44020094 43660026
    42960013 41800018 40980124 41010267 41040419 42220459
    43170447=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 17:53:14
    ACUS11 KWNS 151753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 151752=20
    MSZ000-LAZ000-151915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1074
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1252 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of southern MS and southeastern LA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

    Valid 151752Z - 151915Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds will continue to be a threat
    with thunderstorms across parts of southern Mississippi and
    southeastern LA. Some of the hail could be very large (2+ inches).

    DISCUSSION...Primary severe threat in the short term across Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 304 will remain tied to an intense supercell
    across far south-central MS. Additional robust convective
    development to the south of this supercell is possible, with a few
    cells recently developing along what appears to be a marine warm
    front. Modest low-level warm advection with a 25-30 kt
    west-southwesterly low-level jet may also be aiding this activity.
    45-50 kt of deep-layer shear related to southern-stream mid-level
    jet will continue to organize updrafts, with supercells likely
    remaining the primary thunderstorm mode. Very strong instability,
    with 3000-4000+ J/kg of MLCAPE estimated by latest mesoanalysis,
    along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a large to very
    large hail threat with any supercell. Severe/damaging downdraft
    winds may also occur given fairly steep low-level lapse rates across
    this area. With weak large-scale ascent, overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may remain fairly isolated this afternoon.

    ..Gleason.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_QMqTAXzrWns7CE-6jvAu5_5bdDmaeQD7iSKMuFj_iOx6tjrfPzOVmHGOUIytB9xyORt-9rEi= 95eTuHwGHdYWUneCA8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...

    LAT...LON 31409067 31368931 30808873 30208944 30489092 31409067=20


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