ACUS11 KWNS 071716
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071716=20
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-071945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 071716Z - 071945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the northern High Plains
will gradually intensify through the afternoon. As this occurs, the
probability for severe hail and wind will increase, including the
potential for signification hail/wind as storms move into SD and NE.
A watch will likely be needed in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are already ongoing across the northern
High Plains in advance of a progressive upper-level shortwave
trough. Despite meager instability depicted in recent analyses,
strong deep-layer ascent will continue to support isolated to
scattered weak thunderstorms for the next several hours. Storms will
become increasingly surface-based through the early afternoon, and
will likely begin to propagate to the southeast along a diffuse
stationary boundary/buoyancy gradient. As this occurs, gradual
intensification is expected as storms move into richer low-level
moisture across far southwest SD and northwest NE (where dewpoints
are in the upper 40s and low 50s) and as daytime heating boosts
boundary-layer instability and diminishes inhibition. Hints of
downstream destabilization are already noted in recent GOES imagery
in the form of increasingly agitated cumulus across portions of the
NE Panhandle.=20

A 50-60 knot jet near 500 mb coupled with relatively weak low-level
flow is supporting elongated hodographs with around 40-50 knots of
effective bulk shear. In this kinematic environment, initially
discrete cells may undergo splitting and will pose a threat for
large to very large (up to 2 inches in diameter) hail. Low-level
lapse rates have already steepened to near 8 C/km, and will support
the potential for severe winds. The wind threat will likely increase
late in the afternoon as storms begin to consolidate along the
diffuse frontal boundary, though exactly when this transition will
occur remains somewhat uncertain. Regardless, confidence remains
high that a robust severe threat will emerge in the coming hours for
portions of the central/northern High Plains, and a watch will
likely be needed.

..Moore/Mosier.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_JpnnLbqZ0-lPmuoSNrYsSemZyqSo7_FpyDaWEH0agS6BQ_IN_UqoGMC6Se7VEsVwLByvJb0H= QNHDV2Xm5sSXl7FVD8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON 44910486 44220318 43270097 42760072 41980139 41440283
41360413 42230486 43770587 44520599 44910486=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 151623
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151622=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-151745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1070
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Portions of southern AL into southwest GA and the
FL Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 302...303...

Valid 151622Z - 151745Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 302, 303 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest severe threat in the next 1-2 hours should
extend across parts of southern Alabama into southwest Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle.

DISCUSSION...The most intense convection across Tornado Watches
302/303 should remain focused along/near a stalled boundary that
extends from central MS into west-central/southern AL and southwest
GA. Any supercells that can remain discrete will pose a threat for
large hail, as moderate to strong instability and 45-50+ kt of
deep-layer shear foster robust updrafts. There will also be some
tendency for small clusters to develop and move east-southeastward
along the front. This may already be occurring in southwestern AL.
The threat for damaging winds will be greater with any cluster that
can persist as low-level lapse rates steepen with continued daytime
heating. The tornado threat remains less clear in the short term
(next 1-2 hours). Latest mesoanalysis and KMOB/KTLH VWPs do show
around 100-150 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH associated with a 25-35 kt
southwesterly low-level jet. However, deviant storm motions to the
right of the mean wind have generally not been observed this
morning. Still, any surface-based supercell along/south of the
boundary may pose a tornado threat, with somewhat better chances
focused across far southeastern AL, southwest GA, and parts of the
FL Panhandle in the near term.

..Gleason.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7GSK5xifLGTzqqSsyehGjK-aGlPtBdKGucg4_-IoRz7IdOFPLSXWE6QVvBS9RblZG3UHiRsYu= ARaDZ7K1PaFbZHsnac$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 32398771 32108672 31728585 31498466 30938333 30538338
30118435 30538503 31138651 31918828 32398771=20


=3D =3D =3D
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