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ACUS11 KWNS 120311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120311=20
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-120415-
Mesoscale Discussion 0243
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0911 PM CST Fri Mar 11 2022
Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwestern Georgia...and the
Florida Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20
Valid 120311Z - 120415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Severe weather risk -- including potential for a couple of
tornadoes -- will gradually increase the remainder of this evening
and overnight. A tornado watch will likely be needed.
DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop shows a strong short-wave
trough approaching the lower Mississippi Valley region at this time,
and will reach the central Gulf Coast states and Tennessee Valley
overnight. As this occurs, a surface cold front will continue
advancing eastward, while a cold air dam persisting across the
Carolinas and into Georgia/eastern Alabama gradually erodes with
time from southwest to northeast.
As the low-level dam/stable layer is gradually replaced by higher
theta-e air as low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with
the advance of the upper system, a more favorable thermodynamic
environment -- in terms of sustaining deep/moist convection -- will
slowly evolve. Initially, this increase in low-level theta-e -- and
thus mixed-layer CAPE -- will occur from southern Alabama and the
Florida Panhandle into southwestern Georgia. As this occurs, in
tandem with a corresponding increase in low-level flow, risk for organized/rotating storms will likewise increase.
At this time, it appears that a combination of storms developing
near the front, along with additional warm-sector cells spreading northeastward/onshore from the Gulf, will eventually contribute to
the increase in severe risk. Along with potential for a few
instances of marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts
will be possible, as will a couple of tornadoes. As such, new
Tornado Watch issuance is expected to be required in the next 1 to 2
hours.
..Goss/Grams.. 03/12/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uvgENTK8skwpKttbIVfaaNcUKYP3Nx-WHDPJpTe5Q7kgBs9nAM6qtJX4VinFC0ulWOGtHGfp$=
for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30318790 31478709 32168644 31848380 31068345 30138368
29438480 30018768 30318790=20
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