ACUS11 KWNS 070548
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070548=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-070745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Jun 07 2022

Areas affected...Oklahoma Panhandle...Northeast Texas Panhandle and
Northwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317...

Valid 070548Z - 070745Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 317
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and large hail will spread
southeastward across parts of the northeastern Texas Panhandle and
into northwest Oklahoma over the next few hours. Wind gusts above 70
knots will be possible along the lead edge of a short line of severe
storms. A weather watch has just been issued south of this area.

DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery from Dodge
City shows a short bowing line segment near the Kansas-Oklahoma
state-line north of Guymon in the Oklahoma Panhandle. The bowing
line segment was located on the western end of moderate instability
extending east-southeastward across the northeast Texas Panhandle
and northwest Oklahoma. The bowing line segment produced a 67 knot
wind gust at Guymon, and the line is expected to track southeastward
into the northeastern Texas Panhandle over the hour or two. For this
reason, a severe thunderstorm watch has recently been issued to the
south of WW 317.

..Broyles.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9fOUBBv0WN_rHHdPtukob3DvoPlh-ze8bVuC6CSeeUN6pdF_dyLDoa-ZiQGYGDzXwClfkTElF= 4dRrTC4bw9AZ0GpU4c$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON 35600059 35539958 35689884 35989858 36369846 36599868
36709936 36720063 36710133 36610190 36370205 36060199
35810172 35670132 35600059=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 150853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150852=20
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-151015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1065
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...Far southern MS...South AL...FL Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150852Z - 151015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The severe thunderstorm threat may increase with time this
morning. Watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Initially shallow convection has recently deepened
northeast of Mobile, just to the north of an outflow-reinforced
surface boundary. While this deeper convection is likely somewhat
elevated, MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg and effective shear of
50+ kt will support supercell potential, with a threat of large hail
and perhaps locally damaging gusts. Additional storm development is
possible with time this morning as shallow convection that initiates
within the effective warm sector deepens near/north of the boundary.

The potential for truly surface-based storm development is more
uncertain, due to a capping inversion between 850-700 mb, and a
tendency for warm-sector convection to quickly cross to the cool
side of the boundary. However, with MLCAPE in excess of 2500 J/kg
and favorable shear, a surface-based supercell cannot be ruled out,
especially if some modification can occur north of the boundary
later this morning. Any sustained surface-based supercell would pose
a conditional risk of all severe hazards.=20

Coverage of the severe threat in the near term remains uncertain,
but watch issuance is possible if trends support the development of
multiple supercells across the region.

..Dean/Guyer.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79h_tiIJeoOPRWM7z6imJxYOBqiMTevGOPL4kCfrSOp4Fu4IxnEnFnD_9sZAFyIao4-qjn5vy= 821BTbJ9IQR_KkzxxE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30488915 31448780 31638634 31278616 30778650 30558681
30418711 30398761 30388812 30398873 30488915=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)