• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1063

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 07, 2022 03:05:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 070305
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070304=20
    OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-070430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1063
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1004 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Western/central KS...Northwest OK

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...316...

    Valid 070304Z - 070430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315, 316
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Some severe threat will likely persist into late tonight.
    New watch issuance is likely for parts of the region prior to 04Z.

    DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing across parts of
    southeast CO into western KS, within an environment characterized by moderate-to-strong buoyancy, effective shear of 30-40 kt, and
    favorable upper-level difluence. Storms have largely remained
    semi-discrete thus far, with hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter
    reported earlier across southwest KS. Hail and localized severe wind
    gusts will likely remain threats with ongoing convection into the
    late evening, though the more discrete elements may tend to weaken
    as MLCINH increases with time.=20

    Low-level easterly flow will favor continued redevelopment of
    convection across the higher terrain of southeast CO. Late tonight,
    most 00Z CAM guidance suggests that some combination of ongoing
    convection and redeveloping storms over southeast CO will eventually
    form into a cluster that moves east-southeastward toward portions of
    central KS and northwest OK. The timing and evolution of any such
    scenario remains somewhat uncertain, but given that an organized
    severe thunderstorm threat is expected to persist late tonight, new
    watch issuance is likely by 04Z for some areas currently in WW 315,
    and also downstream into parts of central KS and northwest OK.

    ..Dean/Hart.. 06/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HkMVZncsvwgfzIcFOCfVvvruJ6wdQhBLQkl01VkdoSMVEolE7qTvOZHgVLa5B72ZWBKL_0J_= VCJgWiDtPaKAOIsOu8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...

    LAT...LON 38050416 38220107 38329967 38369878 38369818 38349782
    37219743 36339751 36209819 36409979 36840136 37190403
    38050416=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 03:58:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 150358
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150357=20
    FLZ000-150600-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1063
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1057 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Northern Florida Peninsula

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...

    Valid 150357Z - 150600Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms will sag south
    across the northern Florida Peninsula. New ww is not currently
    anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Leading edge of long-lived MCS appears to have slowed a
    bit as it continues to propagate south across the northern FL
    Peninsula. Even so, strong, to occasionally severe, thunderstorms
    will spread south of ww300 over the next hour or so. Hail threat
    appears to be diminishing so gusty winds should be the primary risk
    as this activity advances south. 30-40kt 500mb flow extends across
    this region so some organization is expected to persist, though
    overall trends suggest severe threat is becoming more isolated with
    time. New ww is not currently anticipated.

    ..Darrow.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8lN07f7XUwO6oSQViXKBxXAmxSiRss1irgjpSwaKh2p2mC5XOIu2Q_12nH-5Lokg2D7nHUGKx= O_Adw_k2AGkWXYTILk$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

    LAT...LON 29648348 30058102 28688100 28608331 29648348=20


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