ACUS11 KWNS 070305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070304=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-070430-
Mesoscale Discussion 1063
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022
Areas affected...Southeast CO...Western/central KS...Northwest OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...316...
Valid 070304Z - 070430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315, 316
continues.
SUMMARY...Some severe threat will likely persist into late tonight.
New watch issuance is likely for parts of the region prior to 04Z.
DISCUSSION...Extensive convection is ongoing across parts of
southeast CO into western KS, within an environment characterized by moderate-to-strong buoyancy, effective shear of 30-40 kt, and
favorable upper-level difluence. Storms have largely remained
semi-discrete thus far, with hail in excess of 3 inches in diameter
reported earlier across southwest KS. Hail and localized severe wind
gusts will likely remain threats with ongoing convection into the
late evening, though the more discrete elements may tend to weaken
as MLCINH increases with time.=20
Low-level easterly flow will favor continued redevelopment of
convection across the higher terrain of southeast CO. Late tonight,
most 00Z CAM guidance suggests that some combination of ongoing
convection and redeveloping storms over southeast CO will eventually
form into a cluster that moves east-southeastward toward portions of
central KS and northwest OK. The timing and evolution of any such
scenario remains somewhat uncertain, but given that an organized
severe thunderstorm threat is expected to persist late tonight, new
watch issuance is likely by 04Z for some areas currently in WW 315,
and also downstream into parts of central KS and northwest OK.
..Dean/Hart.. 06/07/2022
...Please see
https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6HkMVZncsvwgfzIcFOCfVvvruJ6wdQhBLQkl01VkdoSMVEolE7qTvOZHgVLa5B72ZWBKL_0J_= VCJgWiDtPaKAOIsOu8$ for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 38050416 38220107 38329967 38369878 38369818 38349782
37219743 36339751 36209819 36409979 36840136 37190403
38050416=20
=3D =3D =3D
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