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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1062

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 07, 2022 02:38:04
    ACUS11 KWNS 070237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 070237=20
    KYZ000-TNZ000-070530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1062
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

    Areas affected...Parts of western/middle TN and southwest KY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 070237Z - 070530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe risk could linger over parts of
    western/middle TN and southwest KY into the overnight hours. Watch
    issuance is not expected at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A plume of warm advection and related strong low-level
    flow continues to overspread parts of western/middle TN into
    southwest KY this evening, where clusters of storms and transient
    supercell structures are ongoing. While the airmass has been largely
    overturned during the last several hours, rich boundary layer
    moisture (upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints) are contributing to pockets
    of surface-based instability beneath poor midlevel lapse rates per
    the 00z BNA sounding. With that said, regional VWP data shows
    favorably large, clockwise turning low-level hodographs
    characterized by 200-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH and 35-45 kt 0-6 km shear.

    Any longer-lived cells that can intercept pockets of surface-based
    buoyancy amid the favorable boundary-layer streamwise vorticity
    could exhibit supercell characteristics. Therefore, a tornado or two
    and locally damaging gusts cannot be entirely ruled out. With time,
    there may be a tendency for convection to grow upscale, and severe
    gusts could be a growing concern with eastward extent. Given already
    limited buoyancy and the onset of nocturnal boundary-layer
    stability, the threat appears too marginal and localized for watch consideration at this time.

    ..Weinman/Hart.. 06/07/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-9oXSn-9fPDfOA9-zle83QhVmnqg6XJQL7DVcz2JIaYMb6mlKLfmKrAWILiiIXtsHudzVImq-= Xw4bP_7D84b5wejvUA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

    LAT...LON 35388975 36208894 36738840 37098802 37498748 37618665
    37538595 37328536 36928516 36268550 35278719 35048823
    35068962 35388975=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 15, 2023 02:37:33
    ACUS11 KWNS 150237
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 150237=20
    ALZ000-MSZ000-150430-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1062
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0937 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

    Areas affected...Central Mississippi to west-central Alabama

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

    Valid 150237Z - 150430Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will advance across central
    Mississippi toward west-central Alabama late this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection continues to be focused along
    the western fringe of the convectively overturned air mass over the
    central Gulf States. Latest VWP and short-term model data suggest
    increasing southwesterly 850mb flow across southern MS into southern
    AL tonight. This is in response to the short-wave trough currently
    located over southern MO/northern AR. Several long-lived supercells
    have progressed across AR into central MS and this activity is
    expected to propagate into western AL with time, aided by the
    upstream trough, deep westerly flow and warm advection.

    ..Darrow.. 06/15/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8sU3KDEIpFuQWAiaEjUAdw8_--sfQ1kLpamUKSOeB7woIEMGfr_B7jzRNzPjI_Ac-6pc1CZEy= e1S-NdqnErHJedSrpA$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

    LAT...LON 33839097 33228763 31958789 32519088 33839097=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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