ACUS11 KWNS 070210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070210=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-070345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Northern TX Panhandle into the OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315...

Valid 070210Z - 070345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 315
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell will continue to pose a
threat of very large hail and severe wind gusts. Local watch
extension or new watch issuance may be needed if a larger cluster
starts to develop.

DISCUSSION...At 02Z, an intense supercell is likely producing very
large hail across the northern TX Panhandle, just to the north and
east of Dalhart. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and effective
shear of 30-40 kt (as noted on the 00Z AMA sounding) are currently
supporting this intense storm, with additional development
immediately north of this cell. Instability remains strong
downstream, but MLCINH will also begin increasing with time due to
nocturnal cooling, and the longevity of this supercell remains
uncertain. However, if a larger cluster is able to form, then some
severe threat may spread farther southeastward across the TX
Panhandle. New watch issuance or local watch extension of WW 315 may
be needed, depending on short-term trends over the next 30-60
minutes.

..Dean/Hart.. 06/07/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ziT3T4cSQ2FW_01fE-tzbTvphwhNAt6IQlESCk1CxYWh57Je9A59c-oJNvnGDyW00DmJnj4l= SwZi-RECXdgBUwZ-e4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...

LAT...LON 36170250 36480227 36800220 36780129 36490107 36070096
35700107 35480135 35500184 35590213 35850234 36170250=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 150150
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150150=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1061
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Eastern Texas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295...299...

Valid 150150Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 295, 299
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated severe weather threat may continue into late
evening across eastern Texas.

DISCUSSION...Earlier supercells which prompted watch 299 dissipated
as MLCIN started to increase at the surface. Additional storms,
likely rooted above the surface, have started to develop in their
wake. The environment remains favorable with MUCAPE of 5000+ J/kg
and effective shear of 50 to 70 knots. However, low-level flow
remains very weak which will be a limiting factor to more than an
isolated threat. Therefore, an isolated severe weather threat
remains, primarily if stronger cores can evolve from the current
cells in Hunt, Navarro, and Ellis counties. If these storms
dissipate, the threat has likely ended, suggesting watch 295 and the
Texas portion of watch 299 could be cancelled early.

..Bentley/Grams.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!93oNJWBiENX3I6qbn3EmQUIhl2DFVYRZkwWGOoOOZeipeC3ixDzNxUCsCB07LtvVHxwhGlwGG= Z6iTNBIt99qZNqGeyI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 32269701 32979626 33059428 32369391 31739401 31359456
31349600 31429646 31509662 32269701=20


=3D =3D =3D
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