ACUS11 KWNS 062235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062234=20
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-070100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0534 PM CDT Mon Jun 06 2022

Areas affected...Parts of eastern AR...western TN...northern
MS...and far northwest AL

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 062234Z - 070100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The risk of isolated severe storms may increase across
parts of the Mid-South during the next few hours. Trends will
continue to be monitored this evening.

DISCUSSION...Along the southern periphery of a departing MCS across
parts of the Mid MS Valley, visible satellite imagery shows
northward streaming horizontal convective rolls amid lower 70s
dewpoints and recovering boundary layer air. While the area is now
on the backside of a midlevel shortwave trough, isolated convective
development will be possible along an antecedent outflow boundary
draped across parts of northern MS into far eastern AR. If
convection can develop and mature along this boundary, 30-35 kt
effective bulk shear and clockwise-turning low-level hodographs on
the cool/sheltered side of the outflow boundary could initially
support supercell structures capable of isolated large hail, locally
damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two with the more organized
storms. Considering the weak large-scale forcing for ascent in
place, large uncertainty remains, and trends will continue to be
monitored.

..Weinman/Hart.. 06/06/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7ZcI6z7hzG5G6s0Ele3wTAjq2U5ri_OnMKjZ9SOXFYo7iNQ6ct6osNyBR3EWU7DbAbp3ewJ9m= 706YCZ78fbNrPeSQpY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 34058949 34009093 34299142 34829163 35299171 35659154
35729126 35739091 35769046 35768985 35788940 35818877
35878811 35558771 34678770 34188845 34058949=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 150120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150119=20
MSZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1058
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...Southern and central Arkansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

Valid 150119Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
continues.

SUMMARY...A large to very large hail threat continues across
Arkansas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Supercells continue to develop across Arkansas this
evening on the eastern edge of a steeper mid-level lapse rate plume.
The environment remains very favorable with 3000+ J/kg MUCAPE and
effective shear of 60 to 70 knots. Expect continued development well
into the overnight period as the reservoir of buoyancy continues to
be replenished from the west and as a shortwave across northeast
Oklahoma (associated with showers east of Tulsa) approaches the
area. This is supported by the 00Z HRRR which shows continued
supercell development across Arkansas through 05-06Z.

..Bentley.. 06/15/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9PzMHDuRvZqC2Hr4Mqm87DvFTB3uqR5TGkExpf3kVMUE9MM7UKU1u94k-TONqvoq93SlbtnvJ= oMr8ziN3EOpx437vBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

LAT...LON 33169369 33849418 34979483 35539465 35679410 35619327
35629199 35319138 34909114 34039084 33299107 33019126
33169369=20


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