ACUS11 KWNS 052045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052045=20
IAZ000-052245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Sun Jun 05 2022

Areas affected...Central Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 052045Z - 052245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across central Iowa may be
capable of damaging winds and large hail through the early evening
hours. This threat will most likely remain too limited to warrant a
watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop along a
stationary/weak warm front draped across IA. Most of this convection
has remained largely disorganized, though a few sub-severe hail
reports have been noted with more organized cells. Cloud-top cooling
and rapid increases in lightning have been noted with a few of the
more recent cells, suggesting that convection is responding to
increased destabilization (MLCAPE values have increased to 1000-1500
J/kg over the past hour). The KDMX VWP is sampling 30-40 knot winds
in the 5-7 km layer, which supports recent estimates of 30-35 knot
effective bulk shear values across the region. This thermodynamic
and kinematic environment is conducive for organized convection,
though storm motions along the initiating boundary may lead to
destructive storm interference, and steep low-level lapse rates will
favor outflow-dominant storms (with an attendant strong/damaging
wind threat). Overall, the severe threat will likely remain limited
to central IA where the overlap of favorable buoyancy along/south of
the boundary and stronger deep-layer flow is greatest.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/05/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Gik4BLur28DI2QZorqh6ZjHH39r3b-jjMB61HRqyW5lkOuvjkuQTGNKU-8u6m1TOJh5kZLH_= CKlYq-i8diXIgixx74$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON 41939557 42569551 42819468 42879357 42879295 42629232
42429220 41829241 41669249 41129331 41039402 41089471
41259521 41469547 41939557=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 141833
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141833=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-142000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1041
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0133 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Areas affected...far northeast Louisiana into central Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 141833Z - 142000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A significant severe-wind threat is developing across
portions of northeast LA into central MS ahead of an approaching bow
echo. A derecho may produce hurricane force wind gusts across the
region if the bow echo can maintain intensity and continue to grow
upscale. A Particularly Dangerous Situation Severe Thunderstorm
Watch will be issued soon.

DISCUSSION...A compact, intense bow echo is traversing the AR/LA
border and is rapidly moving southeast at around 50 kts. Though the
bow echo is nearly perpendicular to the radar beam, intense inbound
velocities depict the presence of a rear-inflow jet, likely driven
by a strong, deep cold pool. Furthermore, along a stationary
west-to-east surface boundary, an elongated corridor of impressive
overlapping buoyancy/shear is in place. At least mid 70s F surface
dewpoints, overspread by unseasonably steep mid-level lapse rates,
are supporting 5000+ J/kg SBCAPE. Regional VADs and mesoanalysis
depict hodographs with modest low-level curvature and very long
hodographs aloft, yielding 60+ kts of effective bulk shear.=20

The 12Z JAN observed sounding showed very dry air in the 850-500 mb
layer, along with 9 C/km lapse rates in this layer, which often
precede derecho-producing MCSs. Given the intensity of the
approaching bow echo, the presence of a dry 850-500 mb layer with
anomalously steep mid-level lapse rates, and the elongated corridor
of overlapping extreme instability/vertical shear, confidence is
increasing in the occurrence of a derecho. Widespread severe winds
are likely, along with several hurricane-force wind gusts. A few
tornadoes may also occur with mesovortices along and immediately
north of the apex of the bow echo. A Particularly Dangerous
Situation Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed to address the
severe threat.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6_fcemhWuGzgP7JgNqkXMUhr6DBFFwf4GPqthmLwAqFkCPAEllxHcSohO_Nl58tWh5abRBMK7= vyVK-Jwc2OZfgJvBK4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33319242 33479234 33599190 33609104 33469000 33318880
33118833 32868829 32448832 31978848 31658899 31589002
31759086 32139164 32349227 33319242=20


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