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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1023

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 03, 2022 23:22:41
    ACUS11 KWNS 032322
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 032322=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-040315-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1023
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0622 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

    Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into much of western Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

    Valid 032322Z - 040315Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for large damaging hail persists across the
    watch, along with isolated severe gusts. Storms may eventually
    spread east this evening east of the watch.

    DISCUSSION...Scattered slow-moving cells are ongoing across eastern
    NM, with a recent increase in intensity along the TX Panhandle
    border. Steep lapse rates aloft as well as 35-40 kt deep-layer
    effective shear will continue to favor hail through early evening.
    Isolated severe gusts are also possible.

    Visible imagery shows a well-defined CU field across southwest TX
    and into southeast NM. This is within the objectively analyzed
    MUCAPE axis where there is little inhibition. Given ongoing cells
    over southeast NM, this may prove to be a favorable corridor for
    several hours into tonight, and an additional watch could be needed
    this evening as trends warrant.

    Otherwise, the southeasterly 850 mb flow this evening may tend to
    counteract increasing inhibition over the Panhandle and South
    Plains, supporting at least isolated hail and wind threat near the
    eastern bounds of the watch.

    ..Jewell.. 06/03/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4EUHTg05soOaVhzXVGb7FBG0Zhkg484E6tro9obsk8rwNthXrH1axSIGSG3Rhm55O9aYHZ9Y_= TPXD92cUxWFkFcmAJ0$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 30490288 30740394 31450440 32290445 34550462 36000368
    36930279 36910197 36660154 36190115 35630094 35040098
    34600147 33710155 33020152 32120134 31070033 30550052
    30370098 30490288=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 22:50:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 132250
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 132249=20
    TXZ000-OKZ000-140015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1023
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0549 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...North Central Texas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

    Valid 132249Z - 140015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop, primarily
    across eastern portions of ww282 into northeast Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging is currently noted across
    north-central TX ahead of the next short-wave trough advancing into
    the southern High Plains. Expansive low clouds extends across much
    of north TX into the Arklatex, north of a surface boundary that is
    draped from near Tyler to near Stephenville to near San Angelo.
    Modest MUCAPE exists atop the cooler boundary layer where steep
    lapse rates are observed. In the absence of meaningful large-scale
    ascent, weak low-level warm advection atop this air mass appears to
    be the primary mechanism for new updraft development. Satellite
    imagery suggests isolated towers continue to evolve over the eastern
    Metroplex but this activity should mature mostly downstream over the
    Arklatex, as 850mb flow has veered toward into this region. Any
    storms that mature north of the wind shift continue to pose some
    hail risk.

    ..Darrow.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!479id_FGeRqetQPj8t6BSHSME_80HPCRMTM4Ipp6SBs0HLEjBkXOmSmF5zmz1S1zjQFMvhL1D= XCpMGwe-bnNG8dNoko$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 32189784 33779784 33769544 32179544 32189784=20


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