ACUS11 KWNS 031925
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031924=20
FLZ000-032130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Areas affected...Southern Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 031924Z - 032130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A waterspout or two is possible through the afternoon
hours along the southern Florida coast and across the Florida Keys
as low-level wind shear increases. However, buoyancy will remain a
limiting factor until later tonight.

DISCUSSION...Shallow convection associated with a potential tropical
cyclone (currently off the west coast of Cuba) has begun to
overspread the waters off the southern FL Peninsula and the FL keys.
Recent mesoanalysis and VWP observations have all shown an increase
in 0-1 km SRH over the past 1-2 hours as the low approaches the
region. This has allowed shallow convective showers to take on
supercell-like organization with weak mesocyclones. 0-1 km helicity
should continue to slowly increase as the low moves northeast.
500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE over the warmer ocean surface (where buoys are
observing temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s) will continue to
support the potential for organized shallow convection. Persistent
rainfall onshore has limited diurnal warming (temperatures in the
low to mid 70s) and overall instability. Consequently, the tornado
threat will largely remain offshore for the afternoon, though a
waterspout or two along the immediate FL coast is possible. The
tornado threat will spread inland later this evening/tonight as
higher theta-e air is advected north in tandem with strengthening
low-level wind fields associated with the low.

..Moore/Guyer.. 06/03/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-5u7iwQRFtC-AYVXNqSM22ES0nsPB1Lq-VlLDgB3S457YdCjueS6lIWYWPDkZNYbP6DjWOjxX= ZUwG-hSauJkdVHwKR0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...

LAT...LON 24418190 24508219 24718190 24948134 25318122 25708155
25958193 26158173 26058125 25658100 25438087 25368065
25638040 26118025 26187997 26057980 25637995 25108020
24738053 24528100 24418190=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 132212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132212=20
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-132345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0512 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

Areas affected...southeast Georgia and northern Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

Valid 132212Z - 132345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
continues.

SUMMARY...A damaging wind threat across southeast Georgia into
northern Florida will persist for another 1 to 2 hours.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Georgia has had
several reports of both measured severe wind gusts and damaging wind
gusts. The environment downstream of these storms remains very
unstable with MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. However, these storms
have outrun the better mid-level flow with only 20 to 25 knots of
effective shear per JAX VWP. As a result, storm organization and
hail potential remains marginal. However, the linear segment should
persist east into the greater instability with a continued threat
for damaging wind gusts to the Atlantic coast.=20

Storms developing across northern Florida have been mostly
unorganized, likely due to the aforementioned weak effective shear.
However, water loading amid PWAT values near 2 inches could support
some wet microbursts.

..Bentley.. 06/13/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4uPEaAUgyjWr0vGGNISwmbdlH1nQEORXQKfkovmDip31aOeQ25Mgk1JeDE3QSFThyi9pwh5Ws= bcxCN5hN8A2rUbjB6E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON 30078403 30708375 31008341 31568316 31898293 32108262
32068081 31568096 30608104 29998135 29588320 29628394
30018410 30078403=20


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