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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1017

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 02, 2022 22:01:35
    ACUS11 KWNS 022201
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 022200=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-030030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1017
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central/southern NM into far west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 022200Z - 030030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and strong/gusty winds
    may develop as thunderstorms spread eastward this afternoon and
    evening. Watch issuance appears unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Ascent preceding a shortwave trough over AZ has
    encouraged isolated convective development this afternoon over the
    higher terrain of central NM into north-central Mexico. Modest
    low-level upslope flow is occurring over far west TX, where somewhat
    greater surface dewpoints and related instability are also present.
    A couple of the ongoing thunderstorms in north-central Mexico to the
    south of El Paso TX have robust cores and supercellular
    characteristics, even though deep-layer shear remains modest around
    25-35 kt. This activity may pose an isolated threat for severe hail
    as it crosses the Rio Grande into far west TX over the next few
    hours. Steepened low-level lapse rates should also encourage
    strong/gusty downdraft winds. Additional thunderstorms are also
    expected to strengthen and pose an isolated threat for severe hail
    and wind gusts across central NM. But, low-level moisture is more
    limited with northward extent into southern/central NM, which should
    temper the overall severe threat to some degree. Overall coverage of
    severe thunderstorms should remain rather isolated through the
    evening, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7wsz-OyL2guAxvMSyzZyyE5pLJz4AOeNF3erv91Zs1X_bVvJtFI84U3ptOYqnfzgaxyEix-SX= zfbIbgBJcper7gHO6M$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

    LAT...LON 30130470 30580501 30980560 31470626 31870647 32710667
    33420742 34710750 35110712 35310643 35280567 35100518
    34930491 34280480 33670485 31830466 30920393 30270350
    29540344 29080358 29290408 29520446 29860470 30130470=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 19:26:19
    ACUS11 KWNS 131926
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131925=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-132130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1017
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0225 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of northeast TX...northwestern LA...and
    far southwestern AR

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280...

    Valid 131925Z - 132130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 280
    continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for mainly large hail will continue across
    parts of northeast Texas and northwestern LA this afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated supercells which developed a couple of hours
    ago across northeast TX produced multiple severe hail reports before subsequently weakening as they moved into northwestern LA, and a
    slightly less unstable airmass due to prior convection. Additional
    supercells have recently developed over the Dallas/Fort Worth
    Metroplex along a stalled front/convectively reinforced outflow
    boundary. These supercells will also be capable of producing large
    hail, as MUCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg and 50+ kt of deep-layer shear
    will easily support organized updrafts. Isolated very large hail (2+
    inches in diameter) will also be possible given the very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment. The potential for
    surface-based thunderstorms may also slowly increase this afternoon
    across northeast TX/northwestern LA, as recent visible satellite
    imagery shows clearing and daytime heating gradually eroding
    lingering MLCIN. Occasional severe/damaging winds may also occur as
    low-level lapse rates steepen.

    ..Gleason.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!60OqdzOkpewDr6Gg3860XIHv05tCKquO90gG5D2e5D4woHICnDKaXbFint3cVeB4JOdR6Pzof= 6jHUVdToOWRpUGIAFw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SHV...

    LAT...LON 32339531 33229520 33459450 33349388 32689321 31739307
    31909444 32339531=20


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