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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1012

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 02, 2022 04:53:09
    ACUS11 KWNS 020452
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020452=20
    TXZ000-020615-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1152 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of central into north-central TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 020452Z - 020615Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms may pose an isolated threat for severe hail
    and damaging winds over the next couple of hours. Watch issuance
    appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms is moving
    eastward over parts of central TX at 0450Z. Although this activity
    is occurring to the south of stronger mid-level westerly flow
    present over much of the southern/central Plains, it will be
    advancing into an area with a reservoir of greater buoyancy
    characterized by around 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE. With a modest south-southeasterly low-level jet also present over this region, it
    appears plausible that this cluster could remain capable of
    producing isolated strong to severe wind gusts as it continues
    eastward over the next couple of hours. To the northeast of the
    cluster, a supercell is ongoing over Shackelford County TX at 0450Z,
    with a deviant southward motion off a weak surface boundary. Even
    with deep-layer shear remaining modest, in the short term this
    supercell should be capable of producing both isolated large hail
    per recent MRMS MESH estimates, and severe winds based on latest
    velocity data from KDYX. Given nebulous large-scale ascent present
    over the southern Plains, it remains unclear whether any additional
    severe convection will develop farther east along the surface
    boundary towards the DFW Metroplex. Current expectations are for the
    severe threat to remain fairly isolated for the next couple of
    hours, and watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Hart.. 06/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!96prtSalSSGXKuo9uofmsykSckdLZVXpJzv1oNkozcDcf6827nNCulFW-KupM7T1aGvNrwTIs= X5bBvRhtjTJ23imWLQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...

    LAT...LON 31419994 32029968 32399990 32859953 33159911 33249798
    33149730 32979679 32409680 32069730 31649864 31329970
    31419994=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 14:31:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 131431
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 131430=20
    MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-131530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1012
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0930 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...Portions of far southern OK...northeast
    TX...southern AR...northern LA...and western/central MS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

    Valid 131430Z - 131530Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for mainly hail may continue in the
    short term. The need for an additional watch this morning remains
    uncertain, but does not appear immediately likely (in the next
    hour).

    DISCUSSION...Elevated convection that developed overnight/early this
    morning has generally weakened across the ArkLaTex region over the
    past couple of hours. This may be occurring due to modest weakening
    and veering of a southwesterly low-level jet, and as thunderstorms
    intersect greater MUCIN with eastward extent into the lower MS
    Valley. Even with these potential limitations, an isolated threat
    for mainly severe hail may continue in the short term with more
    discrete thunderstorms that have recently developed along the Red
    River (OK/TX border vicinity). Ample MUCAPE (2000-3000+ J/kg)
    remains present on the southwest flank on the ongoing activity
    across northeast TX into northern LA. Strong deep-layer shear should
    also support a continued threat for isolated supercells across the ArkLaTex/northeast TX region. Convection that has formed in
    northern/central MS remains elevated and well to the north of the
    surface boundary. The need for additional watch issuance in the
    short term (next hour or so) remains uncertain due to overall
    weakening trends with most of the ongoing activity. But, a local
    extension in time beyond 15Z (10 AM CDT) for parts of Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 279 is possible.

    ..Gleason.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-DOTq-JH0x33B8evCSbQfBUbj9NrQjJ6EzTmj5qwO4R-owNyJtepTnkM7nV3YIq1c5zsh4hiM= y7zcoQ2rV725k_A_xM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 34169751 34099654 33779283 33739095 33248907 32878893
    32448908 32128986 31899208 31999450 33379664 34169751=20


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