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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1009

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thursday, June 02, 2022 00:39:31
    ACUS11 KWNS 020039
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 020038=20
    TXZ000-NMZ000-020215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1009
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0738 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern NM into west TX

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302...

    Valid 020038Z - 020215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 302
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated threat for severe hail and wind gusts
    continues across parts of far southeastern New Mexico into west
    Texas this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Most convection across far southeastern NM into west TX
    has recently undergone a weakening trend. The 00Z sounding from MAF
    still shows steep low/mid-level lapse rates, around 1800 J/kg of
    MLCAPE, and 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. But, convective inhibition
    is forecast to further increase this evening, which may tend to
    limit potential for additional strong to severe convection. Still,
    isolated instances of severe hail and wind gusts may occur with the
    strongest updrafts that are ongoing. Upscale growth into a small
    bowing cluster may also occur over the next couple of hours as
    convection spreads slowly east-southeastward across west TX. If this
    occurs as some high-resolution model guidance suggests, then
    severe/damaging wind gusts would become the main threat.

    ..Gleason.. 06/02/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8UZsP91k_7P9benkU9RTRjVsGGCkvdn-48kHE43ISSOnHG_7BRe-Y1Dc745dkG0vNvKJ0I1Nx= r5T8hOZZ7apduYpbmQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

    LAT...LON 29650269 29320289 29120331 29320367 29770378 32230401
    32620365 32750171 32520120 31090122 29650269=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tuesday, June 13, 2023 07:53:16
    ACUS11 KWNS 130753
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 130752=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-130915-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1009
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2023

    Areas affected...Southern OK/North TX into the ArkLaTex region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 130752Z - 130915Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Elevated supercell development is possible later this
    morning, with a threat of large hail and locally strong/damaging
    gusts. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...Recent elevated thunderstorm development has been noted
    across northwest TX into south-central OK, to the north of an outflow-reinforced surface boundary draped across parts of
    central/north TX. With time, storm coverage is expected to increase
    within a low-level warm advection regime, supported by a modestly
    strong low-level jet. Ample elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE in excess of
    2000 J/kg) to the north of the boundary will favor vigorous
    updrafts, with strong effective shear (greater than 50 kt)
    continuing to support the potential for organized convection.=20

    Favorably elongated and veering wind profiles (even for somewhat
    elevated updrafts) will support supercell potential later this
    morning, with some clustering and upscale growth possible with time.
    Hail (possibly very large) will likely be the initial primary
    threat, though some increase in severe-wind potential is possible
    with any notable upscale growth. The coverage and timing of the
    severe threat remain somewhat uncertain, but watch issuance is
    possible later this morning in response to these threats.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 06/13/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_vXGoqxsKX3wqHXsTMMk5jy5C2-BvdmInOWv8BasUhQa2tVvfa_Ba8L4KagBBdlyMGdtCsPtj= 28Mv_07M36I116zRek$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 32399499 32619762 32909863 33109932 33669935 34189927
    34879875 34879688 34279465 33759352 33569326 32969302
    32409323 32399499=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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