ACUS11 KWNS 012050
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012049=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-012215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Wed Jun 01 2022

Areas affected...Northern AR into southern MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 012049Z - 012215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Some threat of localized severe hail/wind may develop late
this afternoon. Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Some airmass recovery has been noted across northern AR
into southern MO, to the north of an outflow boundary draped across
central AR. MLCAPE has generally increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg,
with limited MLCINH noted per recent mesoanalyses. One MCV is moving
away from the region toward eastern MO, but another MCV is moving
toward the area from northeast OK. Thunderstorm coverage may
increase late this afternoon near a weak surface confluence zone
across northwest AR/southwest MO, in advance of the approaching MCV.

The severe threat remains somewhat uncertain across this region.
Flow remains relatively weak based on recent regional VWPs, but some
modest enhancement to deep-layer flow/shear is possible in
association with the approaching MCV. Marginal hail will be possible
with the strongest updrafts. If convection can grow upscale into a
small cluster, then a somewhat greater damaging wind threat may evolve.=20=20=20

Watch issuance is currently considered unlikely due to the marginal
environment and uncertain evolution into early evening, but will be reconsidered if more substantial storm organization becomes evident.

..Dean/Kerr.. 06/01/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6C8jPajbniBh52pAHX-3bA30ofe1tfi7QHraZPEO_Rc30WJKE2-D23vjiRBIW-rmLLByBZXdj= QCYpzyGOmR-11r-Y4I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 37319274 37309194 37219134 36539111 36029123 35779201
35779357 35979419 37099399 37289344 37319274=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 122148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122147=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-122315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1004
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0447 PM CDT Mon Jun 12 2023

Areas affected...southern OK into north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 122147Z - 122315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near the Red River in south-central
Oklahoma may pose a strong gust and large risk the next couple of
hours. Additional storms may develop southward across north Texas
the next few hours, but this remains uncertain.

DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across south-central OK will
continue to track east/southeast the next couple of hours. An
Oklahoma Mesonet site at Walters measured a gust to 42 mph in the
past hour and MRMS MESH indicate hail to 1.5-1.75 inches possible.
This activity is elevated behind a front/convective outflow, though
MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Additionally, modest midlevel lapse rates
and elongated hodographs suggest strong storms may continue near the
Red River in the short term.

To the south, a gradient of strong instability exists across north
TX. While this area also remains behind the convectively reinforced
outflow to the south across central TX, strong vertical shear is
present amid temperatures in the mid/upper 80s and dewpoints in the
mid/upper 60s. Additional, elevated storms may develop in this
environment, posing mainly a large hail risk. Given the conditional
nature of the threat, and uncertainty in timing/coverage of any
additional storm development, the need for a watch remains possible
but uncertain.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6K3N8rw5LZSfqzffk2jClEAJkS6_2UPJ7dlLLBSatUe2nJwg9Jd3g1lIvyFhr3v40IqCSiEsn= lmLx72DfZnQtwzgtug$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 34319776 34249709 33969631 33659590 33389580 32839587
32609597 32479640 32469706 32449750 32529782 32859822
33469830 34089813 34159803 34319776=20


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