ACUS11 KWNS 310239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310239=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-310345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0939 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Iowa eastern Nebraska and central/southern Kansas.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 294...

Valid 310239Z - 310345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 294 continues.

SUMMARY...Convective initiation along the surging cold front and
retreating dryline is expected to continue into central and southern
Kansas over the next hour. Damaging wind gusts and hail are the
primary threats. A replacement Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be
issued for portions of the old Tornado Watch294.

DISCUSSION...Over the last 30 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
convective initiation was occurring along the surging cold front and
retreating dryline across portions of IA, southeastern NE and
northern KS. This trend should continue as strong frontal forcing
encounters an increasingly warm and moist boundary layer to the
east. Warm advection beneath a 60 kt low-level jet will provide
further support for rapid storm development and organization along
the front. The strong forcing will support a predominately linear
mode with a primary risk for strong wind gusts and isolated hail. A
tornado or two may also occur with any surges in the line given 0-1
km SRH of 300-400 M2/s2 and strong line normal shear. A replacement
Severe Thunderstorm Watch is being considered for portions of the
area.

..Lyons/Guyer.. 05/31/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7g1URRFFr7JmjUFSSyPMEwBHN-6NvYb4A7V2f6zDqDyk3aqqT0wPzCvSwmT5LSrfIaEz3tk9e= KF5kNN9gFpEUdTfxHM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON 37089783 37029805 37019866 37109907 37329922 37629931
37909921 38239889 38749777 39319697 40239625 41279544
41969499 42289432 42349371 42199345 41899342 41619339
41269342 40889364 40289395 39619457 38089592 37839623
37559660 37229732 37089783=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 120206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120205=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120400-

Mesoscale Discussion 0986
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0905 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...southern High Plains region

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

Valid 120205Z - 120400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across areas in/near the southern
half of WW 267, with local risk expected to persist beyond the
scheduled 12/03Z expiration of the watch. New WW may be required.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows isolated strong/severe storms
ongoing over the southern Plains region, from northeastern New
Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. The storms are
ongoing within/near an axis of 1000 to 2000 J/kg mixed layer CAPE,
that extends from southeastern Colorado to the Texas Panhandle/South
Plains area, near and to the cool side of the backdoor cold front.=20
With 40 to 50 kt mid-level flow across this region, and a 40 kt
southeasterly low-level jet expected to evolve over the next few
hours, potential for continued/isolated storm development is
evident. Therefore, with hail risk potentially continuing for
several hours locally, new WW issuance may be required.

..Goss.. 06/12/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6A3b5Zz5P6HzHsAOkC2rCJlRUIwD0zIQl7sLMG87Wrl_6IfgWmy9b4B3GpeagMyrKBuifRKQG= uUPgzqwoNtHItPxFQY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36000604 36900566 37420485 36760117 35740017 34550054
34270154 34740214 35930440 36000604=20


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