ACUS11 KWNS 301835
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301834=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-302000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...northeast NE...southeast SD...southwest MN and
northwest IA

Concerning...Tornado Watch 292...

Valid 301834Z - 302000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 292 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat appears to be increasing across WW 292,
especially across eastern SD over the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Tornado potential is increasing across WW 292. A
discrete cell has develop ahead of the line/cluster of storms across
eastern SD. Within the band of convection, semi-discrete structures
are also noted. This activity will be shifting east/northeast into a
rapidly destabilizing low-level environment with surface dewpoints
in the upper 60s F. The VWP from KFSD has improved even further from
just a couple of hours ago, with a 0-3 km hodograph very favorable
for tornado-producing cells. Several cells, including the discrete
cell ahead of the line of convection, have shown signs of increasing
midlevel rotation recently, and an increase in low-level rotation is
expected with eastward extent given the very favorable thermodynamic
and kinematic environment. An increased tornado threat also will be
possible as this band of convection absorbs any discrete cells
developing ahead of the line.

..Leitman.. 05/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_DA1B8VCW01DLxaV57hn_fbOtux8p2VzFulyruG4nUIPpf9_Aaj8xT-FoxcZMKgPQRaFKE2H0= r1sBB7gQLEDqvqcXf0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...

LAT...LON 41469694 42709778 43479772 44449727 44669642 44559576
44119519 43459507 42789517 42009560 41429650 41469694=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 112144
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112143=20
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-112315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0443 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

Areas affected...portions of eastern AR...northern MS...western to
Middle TN

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265...266...

Valid 112143Z - 112315Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 265, 266
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging gusts and large hail is expected to
increase over the next 1-2 hours from parts of eastern Arkansas and
northern Mississippi into western and Middle Tennessee.

DISCUSSION...Mostly discrete cellular convection will continue to
shift east the next few hours. Recent radar trends have shown
increasing intensity in this activity, especially over eastern AR
and western TN, with more modest intensification toward Middle TN.
These storms will continue to shift into moderate to strong
instability over the next few hours. Steep to very steep low-level
lapse rates are in place downstream of this ongoing activity with
MLCAPE values ranging from 1500 J/kg across Middle TN to 3000 J/kg
further west. Vertical shear remains favorable for organized
convection, though is somewhat lower over Middle TN and becomes
stronger with western extent into northern MS. VWP data from NQA
also shows a bit more elongated hodographs compared to the hodograph
at OHX as well, suggesting some better potential for large hail.

Overall this environment should support increasing potential for
large hail and damaging gusts over the next couple hours. With time,
potential exists for some upscale development into bowing clusters
via storm interactions and consolidating outflows.

..Leitman.. 06/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5Cv2caZlZciuKfXyMN5jfvELIxPFEIwZ_iBM9iq411pcZPpF2akFy1Myj_w_0UJT2Q7joT4xy= Ci2wD24AGQmmEP4G8w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON 36498615 36388590 36188577 35948580 35548612 35128720
34508881 34118979 34059091 34119137 34289167 34539172
34879151 35219096 35578989 36048814 36528679 36528655
36498615=20


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