ACUS11 KWNS 300959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300958=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-301130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0458 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Northern/Central MN...Southeast ND

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...291...

Valid 300958Z - 301130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290, 291
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for both large hail and severe wind gusts
continues across northern/central MN.

DISCUSSION...A complex/messy scenario continues across northern and
central MN. Elevated supercells continue across northern MN,
supported by persistent warm-air advection over the warm front
extending from a surface low over southeast ND eastward across
central MN into west-central WI. Steep mid-level lapse rates remain
in place, fostering strong buoyancy. Recent mesoanalysis estimates
MUCAPE over 2000 J/kg. Moderate bulk shear also remains in place,
and the overall air mass will support elevated supercells capable of
large hail for the next few hours.

South of the warm front, a well-organized convective line continues
to move quickly northeastward across central MN. Current estimated
storm motion of this line is 55 kt, bringing it into the
southeastern portion of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 291 around 1030Z.
This line has a history of producing severe wind gusts, including a
73 kt gust OVL and a 57 kt at STC. This line is moving within a
corridor of strong buoyancy, and is expected to continue for the
next few hours. Large hail and severe wind gusts will remain
possible with this line.

..Mosier.. 05/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8pZ5EPJ8mgdSb_xV1OO_IV1eCzO_rpJYz9Ldq2Chg1HvNBEjLTAi4i3InNvPAzGiF4ZReTqNW= IGYdWIQFM9RKzUeDks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 47999501 48109369 47859223 47129204 45619304 45359537
46569739 47559653 47999501=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

ACUS11 KWNS 110411
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110410=20
TXZ000-110545-

Mesoscale Discussion 0972
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264...

Valid 110410Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264
continues.

SUMMARY...Large hail and strong gusts remain possible across
portions of the Upper Texas Coast vicinity the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...Severe potential will continue across western portions
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264. Recent trends have shown
intensification of a storm on the western flank of a cluster of
storms to the northwest of the greater Houston metro area. While
boundary-layer inhibition has increased with loss of daytime heating
and in the wake of outflow, vertical shear profiles remain favorable
for organized convection. Large hail will continue to be possible
over the next couple of hours, along with some accompanying risk for
strong gusts as convection continues to shift southeast.

..Leitman.. 06/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9jqeMg9PBpdlV-i3IVMU8oob2jWBxibZH_gThcAg15qIumqOSXx0aCTnWS2DtflEQV4LRPvhh= gEGLHvwSxETARYkEX8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON 30829580 30009492 29209445 28829479 28719517 29009576
29719631 30339687 30609690 30869647 30919626 30829580=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)