ACUS11 KWNS 300704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300703=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-300900-

Mesoscale Discussion 0970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Areas affected...Northeast SD...Southeast ND...Northern MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 300703Z - 300900Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail may develop
across the region over the next few hours. A watch may be needed
over portions of the region to cover this severe potential.

DISCUSSION...A arcing band of elevated thunderstorms currently
extends from about 15 miles north of HON (in northeast SD)
northeastward to about 20-25 miles northeast of VVV in west-central
MN. This band has been moving gradually northward while also
developing a bit farther eastward into more of central MN. The
downstream air mass across southeast ND and northern MN is
characterized by moderate to strong buoyancy, with MUCAPE ranging
from 1000 over southeast SD to 3000 over northern MN on recent
mesoanalysis. Moderate vertical shear is also in place, with
effective bulk shear around 30 to 40 kt.=20

Given these environmental conditions, some severe thunderstorms are
possible as the ongoing elevated band of storms moves northward into
the region. Additional in-situ development is also possible,
particularly across northern MN. Primary severe threat would be
large hail and a watch may be needed over portions of the region to
cover this potential.

..Mosier/Edwards.. 05/30/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-SN0V-56z12uz09wBcXcXI00UA5hdw1bceOsnaEkjG3eY9VqNGM8Ok8tqPo_cNRWlgebOmh1H= gDTfgvyqu62cddKx24$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45419845 46319856 46909801 47579611 47859472 47739332
46919307 46349364 46289508 46069591 45889641 45459726
45399764 45419845=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 110048
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110047=20
LAZ000-TXZ000-110215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0970
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

Areas affected...southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 110047Z - 110215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A risk for damaging gusts and large hail will likely
persist south of WW 262 into southeast Texas and the Upper Texas
Coast vicinity. A new watch will likely be needed within the hour.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of storms across central/eastern TX will
continue to develop southeast this evening into tonight. Latest
trends indicate some upscale development into bowing segments is
occurring, and severe gusts have been measured at KHLR (61 kt) and
KACT (52 kt) within the last 20 minutes. Given a favorable
downstream environment characterized by low 70s F dewpoints, strong
instability and effective shear greater than 40 kt, the severe risk
should persist for several more hours, necessitating the need for a
downstream severe thunderstorm watch.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/11/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8TNL9x4t4rgbj1d05JTuhZ_33IGT_Fa4CZ_Lb6qIwrzz9dCE9M3dI9R-asGqsXX5XYqzV2faV= aPcJ4VhkI9qdPf02ys$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX...

LAT...LON 28809548 30199672 30639654 30979552 30999463 30879386
30309370 29819386 29409399 28809548=20


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