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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0963

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 29, 2022 20:18:37
    ACUS11 KWNS 292018
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292018=20
    NEZ000-COZ000-292215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0963
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of northeastern CO into western/central NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 292018Z - 292215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually intensify as they spread
    northeastward this afternoon. Severe wind gusts and large hail
    should be the main threats. Watch issuance is possible.

    DISCUSSION...High-based showers and thunderstorms that initially
    formed over the higher terrain of north-central CO and south-central
    WY have produced measured wind gusts of 35-45 kt over the past
    couple of hours as they moved into the High Plains of southeastern
    WY and northeastern CO. 20Z surface analysis shows a weak front has
    stalled across western KS into east-central CO. The ongoing
    convection is occurring to the north of this boundary, but mostly
    clear conditions and diurnal heating across northeastern CO and
    western/central NE have steepened low-level lapse rates. This is
    evident by adjusting the 18Z sounding from LBF with the 20Z surface observation, where MUCAPE has increased to around 1500 J/kg.

    As daytime heating further steepens low-level lapse rates and
    lingering convective inhibition erodes, high-resolution guidance
    suggests the ongoing thunderstorms should strengthen over the next
    couple of hours as they encounter greater low-level moisture and a
    more unstable airmass. The presence of steep low/mid-level lapse
    rates should encourage acceleration of strong to severe downdraft
    winds to the surface. Although less clear, there may also be some
    potential for isolated large hail if any supercells can develop
    ahead of the thunderstorm cluster, as 35-50 kt of deep-layer shear
    will support updraft organization. Observational trends will be
    closely monitored over the next couple of hours for signs of
    increasing convective organization and intensity, which may
    eventually warrant watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Thompson.. 05/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_D3r-VWEy0u4qIOvBpHbdjZkW3THK6mrkIIBzh-UPmFIR0K6n_agHWkFVLAK4IIeOldgfYqjC= xW2mpU7kN1yZ_WOor8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 41599941 40580062 40410243 40640312 41190361 42140376
    42610362 42850323 42970233 42910081 42719974 41599941=20


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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Saturday, June 10, 2023 15:14:44
    ACUS11 KWNS 101514
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 101514=20
    LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-101745-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0963
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1014 AM CDT Sat Jun 10 2023

    Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast Oklahoma into the
    Arklatex region

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 101514Z - 101745Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms approaching the Arklatex may gradually increase in
    intensity throughout the day, with locally severe gusts and
    marginally severe hail.

    DISCUSSION...Strong storms currently extend from far southeast OK
    into northeast TX, with an outflow boundary trailing westward across
    northern TX. To the east, a diffuse boundary also exists from
    southern AR into northwest MS in association with outflow from
    overnight convection. Measured winds associated with the current
    storms have generally been weak at 25-35 kt.

    Latest storm trends indicate slow strengthening and deepening of the
    updrafts, with small hail cores evident as well. Given further
    destabilization of the moist air mass today, further strengthening
    of this small MCS cannot be ruled out. While shear is weak, good
    PWAT values over 1.50" along with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg may still
    yield a forward propagating severe complex capable of damaging gusts
    and marginal hail.

    ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/10/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!42x3FaY_kJv5LuvJmEBIURzxPONF3VkmVh0YZXcQ2PqDzPSjsKrcA4A7an6jLUEb12s8zOvGl= u2_Jiz2LH5nn5iiS34$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...FWD...

    LAT...LON 33269574 33489536 33659509 33949481 34139431 34199391
    34039327 33739260 33069238 32439254 31979286 31809352
    31849416 31979492 32259544 32499575 33269574=20


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