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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0960

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sunday, May 29, 2022 15:03:07
    ACUS11 KWNS 291503
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 291502=20
    WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-291630-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0960
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1002 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

    Areas affected...Portions of far southeastern MN into western WI and
    far northeastern IA

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

    Valid 291502Z - 291630Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe hail threat appears to be diminishing.
    Downstream watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Elevated thunderstorms driven largely by low-level warm
    advection have struggled to intensity over the past couple of hours
    across southern MN. This activity is approaching the eastern bounds
    of meaningful MUCAPE based on latest mesoanalysis. Deep-layer shear
    is also marginal, around 25-30 kt. Current expectations are for the
    already marginal hail threat associated with these thunderstorms to
    continue diminishing as they move eastward across western WI over
    the next couple of hours. The remaining valid counties in Severe
    Thunderstorm Watch 286 should be able to be cleared shortly, and
    downstream watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason.. 05/29/2022

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5ZslBUI0V4FsJeH2jzEaS9bqv_RoVitVGqRQb4cTNPa6-PVry9P6nzs_BE-KE0pqsuZd43dMl= 0Y7ub4mZX_b12nuDio$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

    LAT...LON 44609187 45239209 45499155 45429077 44959037 44029034
    43409083 43049176 43329186 43869161 44609187=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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  • From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Friday, June 09, 2023 20:19:39
    ACUS11 KWNS 092019
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 092018=20
    OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-092215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0960
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0318 PM CDT Fri Jun 09 2023

    Areas affected...Southeast CO...Far Northeast NM

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 092018Z - 092215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of hail are possible for the next
    few hours across the elevated areas of southeast CO. Addition storms
    are possible farther east, with damaging gusts as the primary severe
    threat.

    DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm initiation is underway over the high
    terrain of southeast CO and adjacent northeast NM, supported by
    diurnal destabilization and increasing ascent attendant to the
    approaching shortwave trough. Thunderstorm development is expected
    to continue across the higher terrain this afternoon, before
    eventually trending more eastward into the lower elevations of far
    southeast CO. Some hail is possible with this more cellular
    development over the terrain.

    The airmass over the lower elevations is characterized by deep
    boundary-layer mixing and associated steep low-level lapse rates.
    Deep-layer shear will be modest, which, when combined with the high
    cloud bases and steep low-lapse rates, will likely contribute to an outflow-dominant storm structure. Even so, some amalgamation of
    storm outflows is possible, with the resulting cluster then pushing
    even farther east into far southwest KS and the OK Panhandle. While
    the confidence in that convective evolution is moderate, the overall
    severity of resulting line is more questionable. As such, convective
    trends will be monitored this afternoon for possible watch issuance.

    ..Mosier/Thompson.. 06/09/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9cTjJMCCqnYEzHEoKafb6BlKep9xzV9D2UzRl2esWvufDLobhvbHwWUzq1BMq5qjgojcFUZOY= CeLyC00qgTyKcYM8OY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

    LAT...LON 37440469 38320454 38760394 38690275 38190207 37230213
    36690265 36030372 35800420 35950491 37440469=20


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