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ACUS11 KWNS 102237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102237=20
FLZ000-110030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022

Areas affected...portions of central Florida

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41...

Valid 102237Z - 110030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe threat has diminished across WW 41, and should
continue to do so into this evening. It appears that watch
cancellation can be considered, prior to its scheduled 11/02Z
expiration.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows scattered thunderstorms ongoing
across central and portions of southern Florida, with a few of the
storms strong in character. The most intense convection at this
time is off the eastern coast, moving eastward/offshore. Meanwhile,
the inland portion of this convective cluster appears much weaker,
and is being undercut by convective outflow moving steadily
southward.

Meanwhile, a second cluster of convection that included a few more
vigorous updrafts while over the eastern Gulf has weakened as storms
have moved onshore near and south of the Tampa Bay area.

Overall, risk for severe weather has decreased, and should continue
to do so over the next few hours. Available CAPE has been steadily
decreasing per RUC-based objective analysis, in tandem with the
beginnings of diurnal boundary-layer cooling that is currently
observed. In addition, flow aloft -- already veered and not
particularly strong, resulting in only modest deep-layer shear --
has shown a weakening trend with time per area WSR-88D VWPs,
consistent with model guidance.

Given this evolution of the environment, severe weather risk should
remain low, and gradually decrease with time. While potential for a
strong wind gust will continue for another hour or two, it appears
that early cancellation of the watch may be warranted.

..Goss.. 03/10/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qfMthQorgNCn6Y7cJqM4fVri94BZtwxOua1fZdVrOApJrA_PiFqP7VT5t_7PvImj_pzvg2RZ$=
for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON 27418277 27958217 28188127 28558050 28248011 27598027
27188075 27108176 26838274 27418277=20



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ACUS11 KWNS 030113
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030113=20
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 PM CST Thu Mar 02 2023

Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma southwestward into central
Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 55...

Valid 030113Z - 030245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 55 continues.

SUMMARY...Risk for locally substantial damaging wind gusts and a few
tornadoes will continue across the watch area.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-organized line of
strong/severe storms extending from southeastern Oklahoma
south-southwestward across the Texas Hill County. With a very
strong upper-level system centered near the southeastern New
Mexico/Texas border, intense downstream flow aloft has contributed
to numerous damaging wind gusts across northern and central Texas
over the past hour or so -- including several measured gusts over 70
mph. As the line of storms continues moving eastward at around 40
kt through northern and central Texas, potential for
local/substantial wind gusts will continue. In addition, risk for
occasional tornadoes within the intense convective band will also
continue -- which would heighten local risk for damage with these
storms.

..Goss.. 03/03/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5-ceGTpHDvBtF8xsbSgiuac7j1XaodXIhVWwYTKeTFuOdWwxmPnFCJj6vS5-aOCeY39ek6Qsi= 5NAzNgWX5EonYZEz1w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 31259780 32179749 34199618 34859440 33819451 33059471
31949570 31139779 31259780=20


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ACUS11 KWNS 142051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142050=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0237
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Areas affected...Portions of far northeast TX into eastern
OK...AR...and southern MO

Concerning...Tornado Watch 42...43...

Valid 142050Z - 142215Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42, 43 continues.

SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat may be increasing across parts of
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. A large hail and tornado
threat continues with any discrete thunderstorms. Depending on
convective trends, a new/downstream watch may eventually be needed
for parts of western Arkansas and vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Convection has generally grown upscale into multiple
bowing clusters across parts of east-central OK, northwestern AR,
and southern MO. Severe/damaging winds up to 50-70 mph should become
an increasing concern with this mainly linear convection. Still,
some threat for large hail and a couple tornadoes should persist
with any supercells that can remain discrete, or embedded within the
clusters, given modest but sufficient low-level shear and strong
deep-layer shear. Some attempts at robust convective development
have recently been noted across southeastern OK, with associated
threat for large to very large hail. Depending on convective trends,
additional watch issuance may be needed for parts of
western/southern AR, extreme southeastern OK, and vicinity over the
next couple of hours.

..Gleason/Goss.. 03/14/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_ynL4K3NCRkrghUIeMRUJGCBUAl5lPCVb_Sqc5PdIS1bX_C4S_hoDAhHx2cCmL9lwx7GCTl3Q= F5ZM8polDFJxADTZTQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33679631 34339699 35119606 36209412 36729393 37479378
37619292 37439181 37069131 36249153 34739248 33889334
33459402 33509506 33679631=20


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