ACUS11 KWNS 290917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290916=20
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-291045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0416 AM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Areas affected...Far Southeast SD...Far Southwest MN...Extreme
Northwest IA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 290916Z - 291045Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for large to very hail and strong wind gusts
continues within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285.

DISCUSSION...A strong elevated supercell continues to move
northeastward across far southeast SD towards extreme northwest IA
and adjacent southwest MN. This region is in the northwestern
periphery of a strong low-level jet that extends across the southern
and central Plains. Warm-air advection associated with this
low-level jet is expected to remain over the region for the next
several hours as the low-level jet persists. This warm-air advection
coupled with increasing low-level moisture and steep mid-level lapse
rates should support the perseverance of this supercell.

Primary threat is currently large to very large hail. Recent MRMS
MESH estimates hail over 3". Additionally, despite low-level
stability, some strong wind gusts are also possible, particularly as
this supercell interacts with an outflow boundary from earlier
storms.

..Mosier.. 05/29/2022

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aXRKKDrs-XRuo1SuCjjpbZu4eVaH414MUiCWdPGmQ-hh-qgcTgsM9Uw0S3KeqT3YDLL8hebe= fzohGtqmw5vH-1g4oA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...

LAT...LON 43569734 43929668 44169558 43899517 43359523 43129602
42929716 43569734=20


=3D =3D =3D
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ACUS11 KWNS 082235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082235=20
TXZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Areas affected...Southeast Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082235Z - 090100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat, along with hail will be
possible with storms in the Houston area over the next 1 to 2 hours.
The threat should be too marginal for weather watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough in east-central Texas. Lift associated with the trough is supporting a
convective cluster in the Houston area. At the surface, an outflow
boundary is moving southward across southern Harris county. The
storms are located near and to the north of this outflow boundary.
In spite of this, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s F to near
70 F in the Houston area, which is creating moderate instability.
This combined with steep low-level lapse rates near 7.0 C/km
according to the RAP should be enough for a marginal wind-damage
threat over the next hour or two. Hail could also accompany the
stronger cells.

..Broyles/Hart.. 06/08/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_KHFTrLPS0Czdgi3WWSIcc9zvMQjcuBEeoRb68kke8PZeCvwdkb2KoBsbMYss_H5XpVFDe3Y7= qFxtJX5rwXDls-NL30$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29309517 29439568 29769590 30099581 30329541 30309491
30129453 29779439 29499461 29309517=20


=3D =3D =3D
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